Mark Mulder is back! Everybody get pumped!

It says something about the way trading for that post-2004 ace worked out that–on a team whose rotation has gone a collective 43-59, with an ERA of 5.00 and starters with ERAs of 5.75, 5.63, and (thanks to Chris Lambert) 11.08–the return of a young pitcher who was a perennial Cy Young candidate for a few years in the recent past has been greeted with, at best, a muffled whimper. He’s Mark Mulder! Winner of 21 games with a 3:1 K:BB ratio as a 23-year-old! Wielder of a live fastball and hard breaking stuff!

Of course, we never saw that Mark Mulder. The Cardinals traded for him, but they got Swamp Gas. Winner of 16 games! Striker-out of very-nearly-five guys per nine innings! Wielder of an 85 mph changeup and an eephus curve! Basically we got Mike Maroth:

         GS     IP  K/9  BB/9  HR/9   FIP   ERA
Maroth04 33  217.0  4.5   2.4  1.04  4.52  4.31
Mulder05 32  205.0  4.9   3.1  0.80  4.35  3.64

Apparently that is the stat line agreed upon by the United Soft-Tossing Lefties of America as per their most recent collective bargaining agreement with the Crafty Veterans Association, although Swamp Gas Mulder somehow managed to avoid a ton of home runs that usually come with this particular territory.

So here’s the main thing to look at for tonight: is he really throwing 91, as was reported during his earliest rehab starts? The results may not be there immediately, but if there’s even a hint that his out pitch is no longer a 60 mile an hour softball curve this first start has to be considered a success, even though it comes at a crucial point in the division race. Which is a long way from his last start–the disastrous let’s-throw-this-out-there start against the Mets–which also came at a crucial point in the division race. That one, in which he was laboring even more than he usually does to hit the mid-80s on the gun, would only have been a success if he’d suddenly discovered he was ambidextrous, or found twenty bucks on the pitching mound.

Remember when the Cardinals made that one trade?

Added Beane: “Daric will walk a little more than Tony [Gwynn], but Boggs is a good call. Daric might have a little more power. … I don’t want to say they’re similar hitters, but what Daric does at such a young age is so unique.”

…

Added the NL scout: “When it’s all said and done, if this guy stays healthy, it won’t be, ‘He’s one of the guys they got in the Mulder deal.’ It’ll be ‘Mulder’s the guy St. Louis got in the Barton deal.’”

I’m pretty sure it’s been “The A’s got Haren, Calero, and Barton in the Mulder deal!” for a while now; the main thing is that Barton will probably pass Kiko in the recounting some time in 2009. How would Daric Barton look in left field right about now? I had a dream the other day in which Barton made his major league debut; after a month or so he was hitting .280/.400/.450. (Yes, I dream in terms of OPS.) I have no doubt that if this continues at its current pace, my next nightmare will involve Barton hitting a walk-off home run to preserve a win for Haren and a hold for Calero.

But hey, Mulder did help us to that championship by forcing the acquisition of Jeff Weaver and the emergence of Anthony Reyes. Just like Jocketty planned it.

February is the Month of Unbridled Optimism, because there’s nothing to talk about but best-case scenarios. In that tradition, it’s time for a player whose name I dare not speak–Mark Mulder. (That was typing.) Swamp Gas’s recent feature in the Post-Dispatch is the latest salvo on that front.

Remember that video that made the rounds a while back, dissected by Baseball Primer pitching expert Carlos Gomez? The one where Mulder’s mechanics completely disintegrate over two years. From the article:

Mulder, 29, began a series of alterations to his delivery that prevented him from achieving consistency. By the time he landed on the disabled list for the first time last May, Mulder described himself as “slinging” the ball with an abbreviated arm action completely different from his form at the beginning of his final season in Oakland.

Surprise! He actually realizes it. This is the best news that could possibly come from the Mulder deal at this point; it means that they’ve detected the flaw, and they’re working on fixing it. If Mulder comes back this July throwing 90 with any consistency at all, I will kiss Carlos Gomez on the mouth. Say, you’re asking yourself, why didn’t he pick up on this earlier?

“I wasn’t throwing correctly, but I never would have imagined needing surgery,” said Mulder.

What? He really couldn’t put delivery changes, a “weak arm”, and pain together and think “I’m hurt”? It’s funny how these things work out sometimes, but luckily enough I discovered an old-time radio program, dated 1942, that is eerily prescient at this time. I’ve managed to license the transcript from the Mutual Broadcasting people, so here goes:

THE THRILLING ADVENTURES OF MARK MULDER
THE MOST OBLIVIOUS MAN… IN THE UNIVERSE!

ANNOUNCER
Kiddies–it’s time once again for the adventures of the world’s least-inquisitive detective, the Duke of Deductive Reasoning, Mark Mulder! Presented by the Lucky Strike Corporation!

[Children applaud, smoke.]

ANNOUNCER
Today’s adventure begins, as always, in the locker room of the local baseball nine! The Manager, Buck Burnside, has called Mark in for a secret conference!

MARK
What is it, boss?

BUCK
I’ve got a case for you, but I need to know you’ll be able to keep it under your hat. Y’see, my daughter’s got a new beau, and… I’m just not sure he’s on the up-and-up.

MARK
Gee, boss… what makes you think that?

BUCK
That’s where you come in. It’s a dangerous mission, but I’d like you to tail him and see what you can find out. Something about him just doesn’t make sense.

MARK
I… I’ll see what I can do.

BUCK
And Mulder?

MARK
Yeah?

BUCK
Have a Lucky Strike. L.S.M.F.T!

MARK
Fine tobacco, indeed!

ANNOUNCER
It’s fine tobacco because it’s toasted, instead of sun-dried! Meanwhile, Mark found himself hot on the trail of Betty Burnside’s beau, “Machine Gun” Madison!

MARK
Hmm–that’s a strange group of friends he’s meeting. And in front of the bank, too! I’ll just sneak behind this wall and listen in…

[Sneaking noises.]

MADISON
That’s right, boys. We’ll set Betty up at the front, with a toy pistol or somethin’, and while the police fuss with her “Hacksaw”, “Clawhammer”, “Polio” and I’ll burrow up from the floor and blow through the safe. Say, where is “Polio”, anyway?

MARK
If only he’d say why he’s here! And with that dynamite!

“POLIO”
This is Bob “Polio” Hope, saying “Sorry I’m late, boys, but I just got back from giving the Japs an iron lung-full!”

ANNOUNCER
Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Bob Hope!

[Applause.]

MADISON
Quick, positions, everybody–that dupe Betty’s coming over here.

MARK
Something tells me these guys are up to no good!

BETTY
Aww, hi, Machine Gun! It’s so romantic of you to suggest the bank for our date tonight!

MADISON
Anything for you, doll. Now, I have to go see a man about a horse. Just hold this for me for a minute–it’s a gift for, ah, my nephew.

MARK
Well, gee, it looks like they’re really in love! Buck will sure be glad to hear it!

MADISON
[In a loud whisper.] “Ginsu Knife”, are you ready with the TNT?

[Walking noises.]

ANNOUNCER
But before “Machine Gun” Madison was able to get away, Our Hero made a startling realization!

MARK
I just know things don’t add up. There’s the drills, and the dynamite, and the Sicilians, and the bags with dollar signs on them… and… that’s it! Stop it right there, Madison! You’re smoking Marlboros, like a woman!

ANNOUNCER
Madison was stopped dead in his tracks–he turned around to face Mulder’s steely gaze, and the big “wind-up” of justice!

MARK
Here goes, miscreants!

ANNOUNCER
Before the exciting conclusion, a word from our sponsor, Lucky Strike Tobacco!

[Four minute L.S.M.F.T. jingle.]

ANNOUNCER
When we last left our hero, he had delivered the “fast ball” of justice straight at “Machine Gun” Madison!

“BOX-CUTTER”
Boss, that baseball’s almost reached us!

MADISON
It’ll hit us, too–unless we run for it! The bank isn’t worth it, boys, Let’s go!

[Tapping noise.]

MADISON
Boys, I’m hit! About chest-high, and it stings a little!

MARK
That oughtta inconvenience you until the police come!

BETTY
Aww, Mark! I feel like such a heel! I really thought Machine Gun was a square guy, but I was wrong! … I just wish he could be as neat as you.

[Kissing noise.]

MARK
Well, I’ll see you, Betty.

ANNOUNCER
And so ends another adventure of Mark Mulder… the most oblivious man in the universe!

MARK
If only that Betty were interested in me.

To complete the blogging idea circle of life–my nightmare relievers, besides Veres, were the surprisingly mediocre, in hindsight Mike Matthews and the completely execrable, always Pedro Borbon and Russ F. Springer. I’m stunned, whenever I check the Baseball-Reference pages, that Borbon only got into seven games with the Cardinals. Because the time in which I watched him throw himself toward the mound in that hideous delivery seems so much longer.

Also: apparently there’s a school of thought that since Ozzie Smith, like Yadier Molina, sucked as a young player Yadier will also become an adequate hitter and make some all-star teams and/or do backflips. The problem with this line of thought is that there are plenty of other defense-first players who have sucked on offense–some of them even played for the Cardinals–and continued to be terrible hitters later in their careers. Yadier was a decent hitter in the minors, like Ozzie, and he was young for his league, so I don’t expect him to be this terrible. But Ozzie had more tools–outstanding speed, a higher walk rate, and contact. Yadier had the same apparent contact skills in the minors, and he’s more likely to develop a little power, but a guy who’s this slow isn’t going to get a lot of help reaching base.

Anyway. They just confirmed Mulder; here’s the relevant info, courtesy the Post-Dispatch:

It was during these conversations that the Cardinals upped their initial offer to a contract that guarantees Mulder $13 million. The contract includes a team option for a third season, the salary of which will be determined by the incentives he reaches in 2008. The contract could pay him $11.5 million-$12 million for 2008, when he is a full season removed from surgery.

So worst-case scenario, they’re paying him a little more than they’re paying Kip Wells for two years. Best-case scenario, he looks good in his half-season in 2007 and then gets them two great years at market value in 2007 and 2008.

I like this move. The going price for average pitchers is $9-10 million. If you can take a gamble on a guy who might be well above average for about that price, annually, then you should definitely do it. It beats another Encarnacion signing–good, inasmuch as they’re paying the going rate for average, but bad because there’s no potential reward to be reaped. This is a team that needs upside wherever it can get it.

I also like it because Mulder probably won’t pitch until July. This is good because the Cardinals will almost certainly have to throw Wainwright into the starting rotation until then, in spite of their delusions of Braden Looper grandeur. This is probably the only way that Wainwright starting could be guaranteed, given La Dunc’s reluctance to commit, without leaving the team a starter short for the whole year.

As for projecting what he’ll do–I don’t think we’re in any position to do that, at this point. He could be absolutely done; when last we saw him he was throwing 85 mph fastballs, and his out pitch was an eephus curveball. On the other hand, he’s young and he could be the next Chris Carpenter. It’s most likely that he’ll end up somewhere in between, and since he was a fine pitcher in 2005 despite already having some severe arm and mechanical issues it’s not a sucker’s bet to assume he could put up a sub-4 ERA at some point in this contract.

And consider the alternatives: Weaver wants $40 million, Tomo Ohka wants three years, and John Thomson… well, John Thomson signed a one year, $500,000 deal with the Blue Jays. Nice move, although I thought the same thing about Matt Lawton and Junior Spivey, two other recent slightly-damaged bargains.

I do tend to write my posts a little late at night, so often the message gets garbled when I think I’m being exceedingly clever. A few e-mails later about yesterday’s missive–thanks to a Deadspin link–here’s what I meant when I said this:

Were they to open the pursestrings for a big name pitcher, there’s an outside chance the Cardinals would end up with three top-notch pitchers by the end of 2007. And that would be pretty cool.

My ideal rotation looks something like this:

1. Chris Carpenter
2. Big Name Free-Agent Pitcher A
3. Anthony Reyes
4. Adam Wainwright
5. Mark Mulder

The three top-notch pitchers in such a rotation would be Carp, BNFAPA, and Mulder; Reyes and Wainwright, meanwhile, could get their adjustments in without being relied upon as much as Reyes is now. Should Mulder’s arm need additional rest or prove to be unsound in 2007, the Cardinals have Chris Narveson and Blake Hawksworth idling in the upper levels of the minors.

Narveson, by the way, continues to confound me. He doesn’t seem to be fit to relieve; his fastball started off in the low-to-mid 80s before hitting 88 and 89 at the end of his outing. He hit some good spots with it, and it seems to have a lot of movement; he registered some impressive-looking strikeouts on the inside part of the plate. On the other hand, his curveball was average at best, and occasionally hung up so enticingly that a slow-pitch softball DH could have turned around on it.

Only a year removed from some significant arm surgery, he could improve significantly on his 2006 stuff; he looks like an ideal Leo Mazzone pitcher, more than anything else, but if he adds a solid curveball he could start in the majors right now.

Because if he just has a good fastball–well, he probably saw what happens to pitchers like that who start.

and he tormented Brad Lidge with such startling frequency, the Astros would have come away with a restraining order at this point. As it stands, they need only make sure Phat Albert stays more than 60′6″ away from the man at all time. I think a judge would uphold that.

A similar injunction could probably be granted for Jeff Weaver, keeping away left-handers, switch-hitters, righties with open stances, and people with left hands. Today lefties went 5-12 against him with two doubles and a homer, while righties were… well, 2-8 with a homer. But his continued susceptibility against left-handers is just crazy; perhaps an arm angle change is in order?

They’ve always hit him hard; during his time in Detroit they’d typically hit around .270/.330/.470 while he did his usual job of handcuffing righties. But ever since his second average year in Los Angeles, where he traded in his preternatural ability to keep the ball in the park for a Suppan/Old Maddux-memorial control pitcher with gopherball issues statline, they’ve reamed him. Anybody know somebody who saw a lot of Weaver prior to 2005? Because his approach has to look completely different now.

If you’re keeping score, that makes it two Cardinals starters whose repertoires are better suited for the bullpen; Weaver seems like Braden Looper, more or less, while Marquis continues to feature one pitch and a lot of terrible breaking stuff.

In the Maybe-Disheartening, Maybe-Not department, Mark Mulder’s surgery was a success. What’s strange? How the piece is worded. Basically, though Mulder won’t pitch for another four months, and his contract is up–well, a while before that, he plans on rejoining the team soon, in the Frank Thomas Will-he-or-won’t-he role.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m still firmly in the hopefully he-will camp. It’s a good gamble, especially if the Cardinals don’t bet their World Series hopes on it. Were they to open the pursestrings for a big name pitcher, there’s an outside chance the Cardinals would end up with three top-notch pitchers by the end of 2007. And that would be pretty cool. But it’s going to be a weird few weeks in the dugout for Swamp Gas. At this point, he was supposed to be drawing big, multi-year interest in the off-season; cameramen would tilt toward him on the bench, revealing his pensive face–will he end up in New York? Boston? Toronto? But no–out of his mind for now–he must carry the Cardinals through the playoffs first.

Now… he’s the forgotten man of the free agent season. But I bet he could still look pensive, if he wanted.

Incidentally, final confirmation for the “He’s pitching hurt” crowd; rather than being a fraying of the rotator cuff, the doctors discovered upon opening him up that it was half torn. All together, and in the general direction of the Cardinals dugout: We told you so. Often.

For those of you who doubted my pull on the world stage, this popped up in the comments–it appears to have been sent from the e-mail account of a certain recently-retired blogger cum VEB correspondent, but I’m sure he just let Mark use it as a convenience.

Dear Dan,

I’m sorry. I sucked. But my arm felt great, and I felt like I made some progress. I can’t wait to get on the mound again. I know you miss Danny Haren, Barton Fink and Klingon Clerico but I just wanted you to know I want to go out there and do my best. Really, I feel great. Did you know I like golf? I also get lots of chicks and drive a nice car.

Sincerely,
Mark

So that about wraps it up for Mulder, right? I have no idea how people got up the ire to boo the guy as he left the field; watching him pitch with absolutely no stuff has been some of the most undeniably depressing baseball I’ve ever seen. Watching Mulder pitch since his fastball disappeared has been the baseball equivalent of a snuff film, every five days.

Theoretically Swamp Gas could be effective as a LOOGY or do some mop up work for the rest of the year, but there’s absolutely no denying something is still very wrong with the guy’s shoulder. And, in a change of pace that should please Anthony Reyes fans everywhere, Mulder and the Cardinals aren’t denying it. I never liked the trade, but I was a fan, generally, of Mulder the player. I’m still a proponent of resigning him to an incentive laden deal, a la Matt Morris in 2005; the difference between a free agent fifth starter and Chris Narveson isn’t that big a deal if Mulder crashes and burns, and if he doesn’t the Cardinals have a number two starter at a bargain price.

In any case, no more Mulder this year: get it out of your head. Okay, I’ll get it out of my head first. It’ll be nice, right? To not worry every week about whether or not you’ll get a briliant start or a mess that’s harder to watch than all eight hours of Andy Warhol’s Empire? I feel more relaxed already.

Wait–who’s pitching today?

I don’t even care about Haren and Barton and Calero anymore.

Okay, I do. A lot. I mean, there’s a #2 starter and a potential impact bat and a top reliev–Sorry. Sorry.

All I want right now is for you to not throw 85 mph fastballs today. Jamie Moyer’s only allowed to do it because he’s seventy years old, and even then he got pasted yesterday. What you’re going to want to do, I think, is throw the ball hard. And if you can’t–well, bon voyage, enjoy the incentive laden deal from the Cardinals or get Bowden drunk and hit the free agent jackpot or whatever.

But what it comes down to is this: if you’re not healthy enough to throw a major league fastball, you’re not helping the Cardinals at all by coming back this year. Because a guy who can is currently blowing AAA hitters away. And you’re not helping yourself out, either; when the highest praise someone can give an outing is that your shoulder didn’t appear to be bothering you when you were swinging the bat, your value goes down. “He threw batting practice fastballs because he got hurt” is more enticing than “He’s throwing batting practice fastballs because he’s hurt.”

Get well soon. Stop sucking.

Regards,
Dan

Whatever happens happens; if he’s suddenly throwing free and easy and he puts the hurt on the Marlins, great. If he doesn’t, well, I hope he comes cheap enough next year that the Cardinals can roll the dice on him. But at least, one would imagine, there’ll be some measure of closure to the Mark Mulder Mystery Tour of 2006.

Here’s a list of things related to baseball that Jose Vizcaino is good at:

That about covers it. He’s a terrible offensive player, and he’s a terrible defensive player; in that most classic of baseball catch-22s, he’s only allowed to play shortstop at this point in his career because his offense is so bad that he has to be a solid defender still, right? Brad Ausmus theory at its finest.

These are the moves that make me mad, moreso than Izzy blowing saves or La Russa pulling Duncan for Encarnacion. This is a team that needs every run it can get, but it’s avoided John Gall, signed Gary Bennett, and brought up Timo Perez; the bench is where you should be able to improve a little on the cheap, but the Cardinals have never bothered doing it. At this point in his career Vizcaino is probably a worse shortstop than Junior Spivey, who hasn’t played there in several years, and he’s so useless at the plate that Jorge Sosa will probably have to come in and pinch hit.

In any case, it’s time for Mulder to prove everybody on earth wrong. I don’t know if I do, but I want to believe.

Sure, Website Dan remains stoic about these Cardinals’ unflappable above-averageness, but I certainly have no problem admitting that I didn’t think they’d pull that one out. All the pieces were in place to depress: Jeff Weaver had pitched brilliantly but made one mistake; The Bullpen–the amorphous mass of Unclutch, not a particular pitcher–came in with runners on base; the Cardinals had laid down on offense for a proven mediocrity.

And instead of allowing five runs in the inning, Adam Wainwright blew through the Reds, the defense picked the pitchers up, and the Cardinals won. Perhaps, with Timo on the team, the Cardinals’ luck in areas aside from roster management is required to improve.

Funny that, as satisfying as this game was, as impressive as it felt to see one of the team’s best players come through in a tight spot, it’s not a great way to win. The pitching was outstanding, but really–one run scored against Kyle Lohse and Ryan Franklin? They shouldn’t be able to do that ever, unless they were, say, throwing rehab starts in AAA.

Oh, crap.

Aside from the win, news yesterday was a tradeoff: Edmonds feels good, Mulder not so much. I was as optimistic as anybody for Mulder making, at the very least, a full recovery to his Swamp Gas form of 2005, but it seems like even that is a pipe dream as things stand now. At this point it’s an open question as to whether he’s a better pitcher than AA prospect Blake Hawksworth, who allowed a solitary run in seven innings for Springfield. Hawksworth throws harder, actually has an out pitch, and–depending on how much you dig alliteration–may have a cooler name.

But hey–the Cardinals won, they did it in an aesthetically-pleasing if not particularly informative way, and if it turns out that Mulder’s only the second best left-handed starter in the Memphis rotation, well–they’ve gotten this far without him already. And there’s always Chris Narveson, after Dave Duncan finally gets it over with and kills Jason Marquis via the evil-eye.

So, while I may not believe in momentum, inasmuch as I don’t think the Cardinals are going to suddenly start rolling because of the outcome of this game, this kind of win still makes it easier to sleep at night, in a “no atheists in the foxhole” sort of way.