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01/22/2005: "Holding Pattern"

One of the major differences between the 2003 and 2004 iterations of the Redbirds, besides Scott Rolen becoming Mike Schmidt and Tony Womack becoming... uh... late model Chuck Knoblauch(?) was readily apparent in one to three innings just about every game--the guys who pitched between the starters and Jason Isringhausen. (Incidentally, if you throw 96 and are from a city that starts with B-, you should definitely have a nickname, but "The Brighton Bullet" just hasn't caught on... yet.)

If you lived under a rock in 2003, or have just done a fantastic job of blocking those "Esteban Yan should be a steadying bullpen figure" memories out, it isn't even that hard to verify. Take a look at the Cardinals' bullpen composites in 2003 and 2004, sans Izzy:


 W   L  SV   ERA   IP    H    R   ER   BB   SO   K/9  BB/9
24  24  19  4.97  442  485  260  244  207  300  6.11  4.21
27  14  10  3.01  382  318  142  129  121  283  6.67  2.85

Talk about catching lightning in a bottle. The Cardinals went from having one of the three or four worst bullpens in baseball to having one of the best. That was great in 2004, but it's also a little worrying for 2005, as it shows how volatile the guys between the starters and the closer can be.

For the first time in a while, the Cardinals didn't have to perform major reconstructive surgery on the pen. Here are your usual suspects:

Cal Eldred wasn't a sure shot to make the team in 2004, even after he played the part of NRI Savior in 2003. Things weren't exactly looking up for the former Brewers ace after he made the team, either. In his 17 April and May appearances he managed a 7.71 ERA. But after that bumpy start he was as good a middle reliever as anybody in baseball; he allowed 14 runs over those first 16 2/3 innings, and then only 14 more over his next 50. Maybe he needs to get to Spring Training a little earlier this year; over the last two years he's got a 4.54 pre All-Star ERA compared to 2.91 after the break.

Regardless of his continued success, he's not exactly a sure thing going forward; this is the same Cal Eldred who got his arm slagged to the tune of 374 innings over his first season and a half, and now at 37 he's been feeling it ever since. And although the results have been the same over the last two years, he arrived at them two entirely different ways:


YEAR  G    IP    H    R   ER  HR   BB    K   ERA  WHIP   K/9  BB/9  
2003 62  67.3   62   32   28   9   31   67  3.74  1.38  8.95  4.14
2004 52  67.0   71   31   28  11   17   54  3.76  1.33  7.25  2.28

His 2004 numbers are probably better, but I just find it a little disconcerting that those look like the lines of two different pitchers. If the walks come back and the strikeouts don't, Caldred's gonna be doing some struggling. Of course, there really isn't anything more than age to suggest that happens.

Mike Lincoln got leaned on a lot with Eldred struggling early, and aside from two bad outings he was lights out. (His component ERA, which estimates what ERA a pitcher should have based on his peripherals, was all of 1.89.) I'm not quite sure what the Cardinals were thinking, running an injury prone reliever out at a rate that projects to around 100 innings, but it ended predictably with a season-ending injury. (SLIDER MENTION HERE.)

Man, what a slider.

Er, anyway, Mike Myers fills the second lefty spot vacated by Ray King. The submariner is a departure from King in that he is as much a pure LOOGY as a player can possibly be. Over the last three years he's turned lefties into Tony Womack (.236/.328/.357) and righties into Wade Boggs (.316/.425/.461.) Notice the walks, too; even if he turns out to be effective--which is if he doesn't face any right handed hitters with more punch than, say, Jason Isringhausen--it's not going to be fun to watch. If there's one manager who will know to use him to his fullest, it's Tony LaRussa, but I would have much preferred keeping Tyler Johnson on the roster instead. If there's one advantage to burying Rick Ankiel in the bullpen when Matt Morris comes back it's that I won't have to cringe when LaRussa inadvertantly leaves Myers in against Sammy Sosa.

Al Reyes might get his first significant role since 1999 as the last righty in the pen. Though, really, it's not all that certain why he's had to ride the complimentary AAA shuttle so much since then. At his worst he's been an average reliever, and when he's gotten a chance this past three years he's been well above average. He's struck out nearly a batter an inning over his career, shown solid control, and allowing an average amount of home runs. If he performs as he typically has over his career, he could be quite a bargain.

Ray King ascended into "bullpen job for life" status with a great season as the Cardinals' second lefty. The cult hero--if you replaced Lance Painter and Jeff Fassero you would be one, too--was one of the better lefty neutralizers in baseball with the Brewers and the Braves and improved further still in 2004. King's improvement over his career stems from allowing fewer and fewer long fly balls, and he shut down power hitters entirely in 2004; his isolated power against has fallen from .159 in 2001 to .105 in 2002 to .087 in 2003 to .060 in 2004, while his groundball-fly ball ratio has gone up to 1.90 from 1.74 in his rookie year.

LaRussa's use of King last year also has something to do with his improvement, which makes me at least somewhat hopeful that he'll get the most out of Mike Myers. King faced more lefties (113) than righties (105) for the first time in his career.


      %LHB  ERA
2004  51.8  2.61
2003  43.9  3.51
2002  40.1  3.05

He responded by holding lefties to a ridiculous .405 OPS. He'll have to face more righties, because Mike Myers has a much larger platoon split, but King is in fact perfectly solid against righties, so that's not a bad thing.

The other big bullpen acquisition was Julian Tavarez. He was a bit of a whipping boy early, signed to a multi-million dollar contract and struggling through April.However, by the end of 2004 he had had his best year ever, despite a groundball-flyball ratio that was his lowest since 1996. The key was a strikeout rate that was his highest since his rookie year, 6.72 per 9 innings. Like King, he also benefitted from LaRussa's usage patterns; he faced a higher ratio of righties to lefties than he had in some time and held them to a .231/.288/.288 line, a .132 OPS platoon split. He's historically been a solid reliever; most of his struggles have been in a starting role. As a result, even if he regresses signficantly he should be valuable.

And then there's the man, Jason Isringhausen. He seemed to be injured all year, hardly ever breaking 91 mph on his fastball--the Cardinals called it a cutter--after hovering around 96 for the previous two years. His knuckle curveball, one of the most cartoony in baseball, seemed to barely ever make it over the plate. And yet he continued to be one of the better closers in baseball, pitching 75 sterling innings and saving 47 games; maybe it really was a cutter after all. Nevertheless, his November hip surgery would seem to confirm that something was wrong. If he manages to throw the fastball and the cutter at the same time, he could enjoy an even better 2005. He's still overpriced at $9 million, but if you're going to overpay you might as well do it for someone of this caliber.

The best laid bullpen plans never seem to work out as you expect them to, but the Cardinals seem to have enough depth to be able to counteract any 2003-like problems. It'd be nice if the Athletics returned Tyler Johnson, too.

Replies: 268 Comments

on Sunday, January 23rd, CalvinPitt said

Esteban Yan? Esteban Yan! *screams*
Hi, I'm Colin. Calvin went to cry in a corner. Anyway, I have a good feeling about most of the guys we're bringing back (Mike Lincoln has a nice slider), except Tavarez. I'm more worried that he'll break down mentally, than I am that Eldred will break down physically.
Question isn't Steve Reed avaible for middle relief? And isn't he a lefty? Why not get a guy who's good enough to pitch well in Coors instead of Myers?
And does anyone remember when Lance Painter started for a month for us back in 1999? Man that was a bad year.

on Sunday, January 23rd, Greg said

Was anything more disconcerting this winter than the Angels signing Esteban Yan to a two-year, $2.25 million? I mean, what was with the Cardinals not winning that bidding war?

on Sunday, January 23rd, CalvinPitt said

About Steve Reed, never mind. The Orioles signed him and might be making him their closer. Dang.

on Monday, January 24th, MO Boiler said

Steve Reed is a righty.

The middle relief pitched 60 fewer innings in 2004 than in 2003. Half of that was a result of Izzy being healthy the entire season (he pitched 33 1/3 more innings in 2004 than 2003), and the starters also improving substantially, pitching 17 more innings and lowering their ERA from 4.53 to 4.08. I'm not saying fatigue was ever a factor in the major suckitude of '03, but with things like Morris being hurt, Simo and Tomko sucking, and Woody wearing down into August -- hell, Jeff Fassero had to start games. There was disarray. None of that happened in '04, which I think helped the bullpen harmony.

on Monday, January 24th, Liam said

Pedro Borbon Jr.

Estaban Yan at least threw hard. Watching him pitch, you'd hear his fastballs smack the catcher's mitt with a sound so loud you could be assured he'd put absolutely no movement on it.

on Tuesday, January 25th, MO Boiler said

Yeah, Yan at least had some potential to be decent. Borbon was able to breathe and had a left arm; that's about it.

on Tuesday, January 25th, Dan said

It's not necessarily a good thing, but Pedro did have the most awkward motion ever, even worse than Mike James'. It was like he was trying to sidearm a medicine ball or something.

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