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02/06/2005: "Counter-Point/Counterpoint"


While browsing Topix.Net's Cardinals newswire I came across an interesting article about the St. Louis Cardinals. In it, Dan Le Batard and Greg Cote, Miami Herald columnists, argue back and forth on whether or not the Cardinals or the Marlins are the better team heading in to 2005.

Now, remember, I didn't say good, I said interesting.

Le Batard leads off with the Pro-Cardinals side, noting that the gap between the clubs in 2004 was massive and--in a reference to the Marlins' recently acquired Carlos Delgado--finishes with a flourish:But even with the Cardinals losing Edgar Renteria and having a weak middle infield and not having the defense or starting pitching that the Marlins might have, they were still too much better than Florida last season for one player to erase the difference with any bat that doesn't belong to Barry Bonds.

Now, I appreciate the sentiment Dan, but this sentence is a veritable Weekly World News of bizarre statements. Let's start from the top.

"... and having a weak middle infield..."
Now the Cardinals' infield certainly isn't what it was last year, but to call it weak might be a bit of a stretch when you consider who the Marlins trot out to the keystone every day.

Last year, the Marlins featured Alex "Sea Bass" Gonzalez at shortstop and Luis Castillo at second base. Gonzalez was quite the prospect in his day, enough to make Edgar Renteria expendable. But Geronimo Peņa was a prospect once, too. Last year Gonzalez took a page out of the Tony Batista offensive playbook, hitting .232/.270/.419 with 23 home runs and 27 walks. That's what we in the business like to call a massive sucking offensive hole. And just ask Neifi Perez if you don't believe me: no amount of defensive wizardry--and depending on who you ask, Sea Bass may not be much of a wizard--will make up for a .270 OBP. Ever.

And in the Cardinals' weak infield we have David Eckstein. Heaven only knows what his defense will be like--conventional knowledge says he's awful, and he was slowed noticeably in 2004. On the other hand, he has historically been rated very well by some of the more advanced defensive statistics.

But what we can measure well is offense, and although Eckstein's not going to be mistaken for Renteria any time soon he is able to find the way to first base every once in a while. Eckstein's offensive superiority is, in fact, not easily measurable. OPS has Gonzalez as superior, .689 to .671. However, Eckstein's OPS is misleading because he is one of the few players whose on-base percentage is higher than his slugging percentage, .339 to .332. OBP is more valuable, per point, than slugging percentage, and therefore for extreme cases like these two players a reweighting of each is necessary to get a true picture of a hitter's value.

EQA, Baseball Prospectus's batting average substitute, is one such reweighting. (Not only does it do that, it also adds other offensive statistics like stolen bases into the mix.) Eckstein comes out significantly on top in that statistic, .250 to .237. (Another, similar statistic, the Hardball Times's Gross Production Average, has these results: .243 to .235.)

At second base the Marlins feature nine year veteran Luis Castillo. Castillo could best be described as a rich man's David Eckstein. He hit an 80's-esque .291/.373/.348 last year, while managing as many extra-base hits as stolen bases (21.) As was the case with Eckstein, you can't really get a good idea of Castillo's value through his pedestrian .720 OPS alone. His EQA, on the other hand, was .268, making him a very good hitter for a second baseman. (Womack's was .265 in 2004.)

Mark Grudzielanek was signed to play second for the Cardinals which (if you'll remember) set me to weeping and gnashing of teeth at the time. However, Grudz has been looking slightly better as of late, with his defense--considered spotty by many--apparently underrated. Meanwhile, his offense, even park adjusted, was within spitting distance of Castillo's in 2004. (An EQA of .263.)

So, if the Cardinals have a weak infield, the Marlins have a weaker one. Imagine that.

And then there's not having the defense or starting pitching that the Marlins might have.

A certain set of conditions are ideal for pitchers to become overrated, and the Marlins' young stars manage to fit every single one.

First, you need a pitcher's park. Pro Player Stadium is significantly tilted towards pitchers, and has been for some time now; the 2004 park factor as reported on Baseball Reference was 95, which is a significant advantage toward the pitcher. Pitcher's park? Check.

Then you need some exposure, because people tend to mistake "I saw them in Sports Illustrated once with "They have great pitching!" . Playing in front of no more than 500 retirees and the guy who sells those novelty #1 fingers at every home game, you'd think they'd be suffering in that area. But many of their pitchers have made particular impact on the public conscious; there's Dontrelle Willis's meteoric rise, A.J. Burnett's no-hitter, and Josh Beckett's World Series heroics. Never mind Willis's subsequent average pitching, or Burnett's slagging at the hands of Jeff Torborg, or Beckett's return to enigmatic/oft-injured pitcher; never mind that they had a higher ERA than the Cardinals last year and lost a closer with a 1.29 ERA. Don't even mind that their big left handed signee is Al Leiter and not Mark Mulder.

Just consider what the court of opinion would say if Jason Marquis was the hard-throwing rightie who shut out his World Series opponents: "The Cardinals have superior young pitching!", probably.

The Marlins' supposed defensive superiority has me a little confused, too. After all, even non-sabermetrics gave Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen Gold Gloves. Not only that, but Yadier Molina is very hyped as a defensive catcher, and I'd be pretty stunned if Carlos Delgado showed up anywhere close to Albert Pujols on the list of great defensive first basemen.

The Marlins' defensive reputation, I think, stems from that untold sportswriting rule: "If the player can't hit, he's a defensive wizard." Alex Gonzalez, Juan Pierre, and Juan Encarnacion, among others, get that nice bonus. But as a team, they simply weren't as good last year and aren't likely to be this year; their Defensive Efficiency Ratio, simply the team's ability to turn batted balls into outs, was .700 to .711 for the Cardinals, tops in the National League.

So, while I agree with you that Delgado isn't enough to put the Marlins past the Cardinals (Hee Seop Choi was outhitting him before the Los Angeles trade), Le Batard, you need to do a little fact checking before you starts conceding points willy-nilly.

Replies: 2796 Comments

on Sunday, February 6th, CalvinPitt said

Nice post. I have to say I'm surprised Lebatard could remove his head from Barry Bonds' colon long enough to talk about something else.
I think what impresses people about the Marlins is they are "strikeout" pitchers, ala Wood and prior, which impresses people more than "groundball/control" pitchers which the Cards have. of course Kyle farnsworth could be considered a "strikeout" pitcher, if he didn't stink.
One question what was Busch Stadium's park rating, just for comparison?


on Monday, February 7th, Len Cleavelin said

The Post-Dispatch actually ran the Le Batard/Cote "debate" last week sometime (I stumbled across it at stltoday.com looking for something else entirely). It was an interesting article, and you make some good points here responding to it, too.

Baseball Reference gives Busch Stadium's park factor (for 2004) at 97; not as much of a pitcher's park as Pro Player, but not really a hitter's park, either.


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