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09/20/2005: "Frustration"
I missed the week--I think it was a week, I don't tend to have any bigger blackouts than that in my mind, baseball-wise--where Andruw Jones got canonized. According to this article, which is what broke the news to me, it happened some time this year.
Usually I catch these; I mean, it was obvious when everyone declared Derek Jeter and David Ortiz Clutch Gods, and equally obvious when the Clutch Country Club revoked Nomar Garciaparra's membership, but Andruw Jones? His entire career he's been known for having poor work habits, being a waste of natural potential, being a show-off, et cetera. And now he's a Team Leader.
I know, I know, he's finally "lived up to his potential", he's got 50 home runs, all those cool bells and whistles, karate chop action, etc. But the big thing, apparently, is that his team is finally bad enough for him to be valuable. Of course, by that token, Ken Griffey, Jr., has had a similar season and his team is much worse! And he's a Clutch God member from way back! He might be demoted to golf-course only or something, I don't know, but I figure why do things half way?
And of course it isn't all about stats--we know this because Jim Edmonds and the afore-mentioned Griffey are having seasons that are just as good, and Atlanta Braves fans are not determined to make them MVP candidates.
So the natural next step is defense, right? Andruw Jones is a great defensive player because we are all very sure of that, and we are all very sure of that because he is a great defensive player. He's on Web Gems all the time, right? That's like 20 Web Gems over a replacement player.
According to Matthew Leach's opponent in this MVP debate, MLB.com Braves reporter Mark Bowman, we are not to discuss fielding statistics: "Those who choose to look at Jones' range factor and zone rating and declare that he's no longer as good as he once was, are the same people that would have said Barry Switzer's Oklahoma teams were just average because their passing statistics were below average."
(Come on, Matt, this is where you jump on him!) No, those who choose to look at Jones's range factor and zone rating and declare that he's no longer as good as he once was are the same people that would say "This car is not going as fast as it once was, because the number is lower on the speedometer."
The correct version of that analogy would go something like this: Those who would have said Barry Switzer's Oklahoma teams were just average because their passing statistics were below average are the same people that would say, "Albert Pujols is not as valuable to his team as Andruw Jones because his defensive numbers are worse." You see, it's only looking at one part of what makes a great statistical profile.
But, come on--we're young, we're crazy, we're wild--let's make that great jump into the speculative world of speedometers. According to Baseball Prospectus, this year Andruw Jones has been worth 27 runs above a replacement center fielder defensively. Of course, according to them he's having a down year, so let's give him one of those amazing years from way back when; say, when he was 44 runs above a replacement center fielder in 1998.
Albert Pujols, that stone-gloved first baseman that Bowman compares to Mike Sweeney, has been worth 13 runs above a replacement first baseman this year, according to BP; now, that (-1 run below average) seems a bit low for those of us who have actually seen Pujols play first base, but I'll give Andruw the 31 run advantage.
Bowman concedes that Albert has had a much better offensive season, so perhaps he wouldn't mind if I indulge that dangerous statistical tendency one more time and look at the runs above a replacement player each MVP candidate has provided offensively. Pujols is credited with being 96.8 runs better than a replacement level first baseman, while Andruw is 62.6 runs better than a replacement level center fielder. Add in their defense, and you get 110 to 107; give Andruw the defensive season ascribed to him by BP for this year--likely a proper thing to do, given the kind of weight Andruw Jones has gained in the last seven years--and it's 80. So, if Albert Pujols really is a marginal first baseman, and Andruw Jones is the undisputed Ahura Mazda of the space between Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur, it's not quite a wash. That's a lot of assumptions to make for an almost-tie.
But then, "In the seventh inning or later in games that are tied or that the Braves are either trailing or leading by one run, he's hitting a Major League-best .296 with 10 homers and 18 RBIs. Comparatively in those same situations, Pujols is hitting .267 with six homers and 18 RBIs." If you believe that a real skill then be my guest, give Andruw the brand new Chalmers automobile. But while you're putting air in those bicycle tires, explain to me how those at-bats--fewer than 100--are more valuable than the other 400 both players have been involved in. Because if Andruw had hit that home run in, say, the third inning, they might have knocked the starter out earlier, they might have gone on a rally... they might not have a close and late situation! Albert Pujols is pretty much Clutch Andruw Jones on a per at-bat basis, .336/.433/.618 to .296/.370/.728; you don't need to split his stats six ways to get a gaudy OPS.
Look, if you use this year's stats courtesy of BP--and I'm not using his 1998 close and late mark, so I figure we might as well--he has something like 30 runs to make up to be a more valuable player. So, if you can find the 30 runs in those 81 at-bats, in addition to the credit he already gets for having hit that well over a period of time, go ahead. But until then, Derek Lee--whose team is worse than the Braves, I might add--Albert Pujols, and several other players all have a bigger claim. And less annoying backers, myself excluded.
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