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10/04/2005: "The Reggie Sanders Show"


Hey, it's the 2005 Cardinals! I knew they were around somewhere.

Chris Carpenter--you remember him, don't you?--wasn't all the way back to where he was in the Summer of Shutout, but he worked out of a jam induced by errors from Eckstein and the first base umpire and flashed a rejuvenated fastball and more consistent curveball in the process.

The bullpen... well, get that out of your systems now, if you could. That sound you hear is Al Reyes warming up left-handed, just in case.

But the hitting... that was cathartic. J-Rod and John Gall both did well filling in for them, but having Walker and Sanders back just makes the lineup that much more difficult to pitch through.

This is why I don't worry about momentum; this isn't football, where you've got to march one hundred yards before you can score a touchdown, and then you can pin the other team against their own end zone afterwards. In baseball all you have to do is throw one bad pitch, or miss a few fastballs

As for Pedro Astacio, tomorrow's starter... I was totally sure he wasn't in the big leagues until he got mentioned during the roundtable. When last I had seen him he was getting killed for the Red Sox in a 2004 cameo appearance. Apparently, though, he's been toiling in anonymity all year, for Texas and San Diego.

Much of the fuss in San Diego comes from his fantastic run since the beginning of August; in his last seven starts he's pitched 45 innings, with a 2.20 ERA. Here's the thing, though... let's take a look at those 45 innings:


ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/BB
2.20 4.8 2.4 .40 2.00

The strikeout rate should be the first thing that catches your eye; post-losing-it Matt Morris has that strikeout rate, and Pedro Astacio in his prime was striking out eight and a half per nine. The walk rate's solid, and the home run rate's outstanding, but here's the other thing: only one of those starts (in Arizona) wasn't in a pitcher's park, and RFK and Petco are both particularly extreme in the way they keep home runs off the board. His GO:FO ratio isn't anything to write home about, either, so it seems like he's just gotten lucky with the home run. Of course, that doesn't mean he's any likely to be less lucky in his next start, just that he's not been a 2.20 ERA pitcher over this span in any way other than... well, the ERA.

It's hunches like these that I think hurt a lot of playoffs chances; when you count on "momentum" and "hot streaks", you can look pretty silly when they stop and/or cool down. And when the momentum is conserved and used by the other team's sportswriting masses after a team jumps on your hot hand, you just have to hope and pray that they start a guy because he's four for his last five and repay the favor.

Replies: 42 Comments

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