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11/05/2005: "25,000 Outfielder Pyramid"

Over at VEB lboros has listed for discussion four twentysomething outfielders rumored to be on the trading block. As is customary in Hot Stove culture, the responses have been varied, vehement, virulent, et cetera. Going from least desireable to most, the list begins with Kevin Mench, the Texas outfielder who, before 2005, was mainly known for his giant skull.

As his Baseball-Reference sponsorship notes, he's one of Delaware's all-time greats. Unfortunately, outside of Delaware his numbers look pretty ordinary. The first obvious sticking point is his OBP; for his career it's .334, .011 below the league when adjusted for his park. Aside from 2003, in which he had a sample-size hiccup and hit 50 points higher than he ever had before (or has since), it's never been above .335. Last year, when he was a big trade deadline target for several teams, it was all of .328.

His slugging, of course, is his prime characteristic, so perhaps judging him on OBP is unfair. Unfortunately, it's not extremely impressive either; for his career his isolated slugging is .212, which is good--he was in the top 25 in the AL last year--but not generally enough to make up for an on-base percentage that's passable at best. When you consider that his ballpark has played as a bandbox since its inception--he was fourth on the team in isolated power--it seems unwise to offer more than, say, Jason Marquis for him. And even that's a stretch; 2005 was his age-27 season, and if that was his peak just then, the Cardinals can do better.

Next on the list, for me, is Blue Jays CF Vernon Wells; aside from a huge year in 2003, the one year he hit for the average expected from his minor league numbers, he's not been Mench's equal as a hitter (although a lot of the perceived difference is park-related.) But Wells also happens to be an outstanding defensive center fielder. Although the difference would be muted in a corner spot, where he would probably be for at least a year, the difference between an average right fielder playing right and an outstanding center fielder playing right would still make up for Mench's offense. Take into account, also, that Wells is a year younger and still has a shot at splitting the difference between 2003's .909 OPS and 2005's .783 mark. Wells would be more expensive, both in terms of salary and trading chits, but he seems like a better gamble.

After those two you get into fantasy territory; Carl Crawford and Adam Dunn are both considered franchise players, and both do things the media values very highly. Like seemingly every Devil Rays prospect not named Aubrey Huff, Crawford was rushed to the major leagues as a 20-year-old tools-jockey way back in 2002. In 63 games that year he hit .259/.290/.371, showing decent power for a guy whose prospect candidacy was based on speed, but little else. In 2003, while the Devil Rays were rapt with BaldelliMania, Crawford quietly... did the exact same thing he did in 2002. While he got his average up to .280, he only managed a walk once every 24.2 at-bats, so his overall contribution was nearly the same. That hint of power he had shown in his debut seemed to disappear as well; all he had going for him was youth.

In 2004 he finally put things together. Mainly getting notice for a blistering stolen-base output over the first half of the season, he also doubled his home run rate, used his speed to amass 19 triples, and dragged his walk rate up from ridiculous to awful. 2005 was more of the same; his home run rate rose a bit, but he walked less.

Some have used Sammy Sosa as an example of a player whose walk rate rose precipitously from the brink of unplayable, but even in his case the big jump didn't happen until after he hit 66 home runs and pitchers were afraid to give him something to hit. Now, if you think Carl Crawford is going to start pounding terrifyingly long home runs out of New Busch, then I'm all for that line of reasoning--in fact, forget about that line of reasoning, sign him for the power. But as things stand now he is what he is: a good hitter for a corner outfield position who will probably age well, but stands to lose a lot of value if he goes into a contact slump for a month or two. There's also the matter of what the Devil Rays would want for their 2004 all-star; can the Cardinals afford another top prospect diaspora?

And anyway, my guess is that the pressure for teams to Hustle Like the White Sox will cause his perceived value to leapfrog that of a more valuable player, Adam Dunn. Pulling the trigger on an Adam Dunn deal would probably require a lot of guts on the part of Jocketty; it seems like whenever a team fails in the playoffs, the assumption is that they would have done better if they could "manufacture runs" via the stolen base, bunting runners over, and waving your hands so that Christopher Lloyd will see you.

Were those requirements for being a good corner outfielder, Adam Dunn would fail miserably; he's hit better than .249 for a grand total of a season and a half, he's the all-time single season strikeout champ, and I hear he didn't even like the first Back to the Future. But he's also posted two consecutive seasons with an OPS over .900, and even when his batting average was .215 his OBP was .354.

There's a chance that Carl Crawford could break out one of these years and outplay Dunn, who is not only king of the old players' skills but also a liability in the outfield, but the chance isn't good that it will happen soon. Even if you think it'll happen next year, Dunn could probably be had cheaper; the Reds still feature four outfielders and, at the moment, they only plan on playing three of them at a time out there. I'm not going to pretend that Crawford wouldn't be the most exciting choice of the four; it'd be cool to actually have a guy in the lineup who can steal bases at will, and slashing triples into the corners is a lot more fun to watch than Dunn drawing a walk out of a 1-2 count. But in terms of value for the prospects required, Dunn comes out ahead.

The only one of these four that I really wouldn't want to see in a Cardinals uniform come next year is Mench, who I think is going to disappoint very much whoever ends up winning the sweepstakes. But the other three... when was the last time we had a young, exciting breakout candidate for an outfielder? J.D. Drew 2001?

Speaking of which, after the recent shakeups at Chavez... is Drew going to be on the block? Because I'd take him over all of these guys.

Replies: 37 Comments

on Saturday, November 5th, CalvinPitt said

I'd agree with your rankings, but I'd still rather have Wells or Crawford before Dunn. I just don't like big, lumbering guys who strike out a lot. I know his OBP is real good and all, but it seems like Reds fans aren't even real high on him.

As for Crawford, my liking him has zilch to do with the ChiSox and more to with his numbers reminding me of 1980s Willie McGee. Good BA, few walks, some power, ludicrous speed (19 triples? Just like Willie!)

And NO J.D. Drew. I am as certain of that as my "NO John Mabry" platform. If you sign Drew, you might as well just go with a Gooch/Gall/JRod/Skip, because they'll get plenty of playing time while D.L. Drew is injured.

D.L. Drew? Man that was lame.

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