12/02/2005: "And now for something completely different."

The offer's in on Burnett--somebody must have gabbed, so I'm sure Walt is sharpening the hatchet as we speak. Four years, just about forty million dollars with a performance option for a fifth year. It's less than what the Blue Jays guaranteed, so hopefully the childhood fandom/the Blue Jays are freaking in Canada combination will win him over.

Hopefully? Well, yeah, at this point, with the Cardinals' entire offseason resting on his bionic right shoulder, I figure it's probably best that they get him. Even though he'll be extraordinarily overpaid. Extraordinarily.

Anyway, there is some pitching news: the Jimmy Journell era is now over. The erstwhile token prospect signed a minor league deal with the Reds, where he is guaranteed at least two weeks as the closer after the rest of the team blows some saves. I'm guessing he'll slot in between Stormy Weathers and Charlie Sheen.

But that wasn't the minor league pitcher I was set to talk about. I was going to discuss the Cardinals' failed prospect acquisition, Dennis Tankersley. Way back in 2002, Tankersley was the second best prospect in the Padres system. Behind... Sean Burroughs. Baseball America had this to say about him back then: "Tankersley can throw four pitches for strikes, and most of them are nasty. He can reach the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball, and his sinking two-seamer arrives in the low 90s. Hitters can’t sit on his fastball because he has a mid-80s slider that was rated the best breaking ball in the Cal League."

It's funny; BA could make me sound like a top prospect. ("Moore throws a fastball in the mid-50s, and features a big floating eephus that's a 70 on the 20-80 eephus loft scale. Managers rated him the best prospect in the Long John Silvers' drive-thru lane.") Tankersley had some great numbers that year; up to that point, he had never struck out fewer than 11 batters per 9 innings, save for his short stint in AAA. There were a few problems, though; as a 22-year-old starting a season in A ball, he couldn't afford to have a single misstep. So, naturally, he had three years of missteps, including his famous 2003 line with the Padres: 0 IP, 7 ER. Yowza.

But rewind a little; after placing second following the 2001 season, he was out of the top ten for 2002. This is a difficult thing to do, but he was up to the challenge. He started the year in the Padres rotation, and his control, which had already been little more than mediocre, disappeared. He put up a 39:40 K:BB ratio, allowed 10 home runs, and got an ERA over 8. After 51 innings of this he spent 100+ around the low minors, where he was solid. The bloom was off the prospect rose, however, and his strikeout rates began their slow decline.

His last three seasons have seen him appear as little more than an average AAA pitcher; his strikeout rate was 6.88 per 9 last year, and his walk rate still hovers around 4. The key, I guess, is that he's been effective before; if somebody doesn't realize what's wrong, well, Memphis has a solid ten game winner to take the field with. If somebody does--well, any effective innings he has in the big leagues are gravy.

Replies: 16 Comments

on Friday, December 2nd, Rob said

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