Get Up, Baby!

Monday, October 31st

Our Pitcher Gets His Due

It was touch and go there, for a while--after an extraordinarily hot stretch one of the pillars of our rotation cooled off near the end of the season. Some people were worried that he had been overtaken by Dontrelle Willis, at least in the minds of the voters.

But, finally, after a long stretch of futility, one of our starters has taken the award home. And so, I would like to congratulate Jason Marquis, your 2005 National League Silver Slugger.

Unlike that other pitching award Dontrelle really had no claim to this one, batting out of the nine-hole aside. Marquis improved on his already-impressive .292/.297/.375 tally from 2004 by going .310/.326/.460, with an extra-base hit every 8.7 at-bats. (For perspective, Albert Pujols hit one every 7.3 at-bats.) The season ended with his OPS 2% above the league average OPS for a position player. How valuable is that?

Well, take big free-agent target A.J. Burnett. According to Bill James's Win Shares system, he was worth 14.1 win shares on the mound. Marquis, on the other hand, was worth 9.2, the same as such luminaries as Horacio Ramirez and Kris Benson. However, Burnett cost his team 2.4 win shares with the bat, while Marquis slashed enough doubles to add 2.6. So, Burnett was the better pitcher--by a significant margin--but as players, by this method, Marquis Marq was just as valuable to his team.

So, it's not something we often think about--unless the player decides to, say, become a center fielder--but it's not a hollow achievement; congratulations are in order to the Sultan of Staten Island Swat.
Posted by Dan on 10.31.05 @ 05:01 PM CST [link] [23 Comments]

Friday, October 28th

If this were 1995

We'd call it still-another hyperlink post--doesn't exactly roll off the tongue, but it certainly sounds more exciting--but then, if I can remember my childhood fads correctly it would probably also be about the Power Rangers and basketball. I apologize for the all-link format lately--I haven't been struck with a lot of inspiration--but like The English Beat I just can't stop it.

First up: 2005 World Series lowest-rated ever. I guess that'll teach them to let the Cardinals lose in the NLCS. Anyway, as a lot of smarter people than me have already said, if Fox complains about this they need only look in the mirror; I can't imagine C-Span doing a worse job of covering the games than they did. So:

Dear Fox,

First off, a word about Scooter. Small children know when they're being patronized, for one, and for another they don't typically hold sway over the remote control in your average Nielson family. Why, then, did some network executive feel it a Truly Brilliant Idea to trot out a talking baseball, complete with high-pitched voice and a hammered bandwagon fan's knowledge of the game? A talking baseball that is so annoying--even relative to other talking baseballs--that the adults who do hold the remotes will flip past it if they know what's good for them? Maybe save the money you're paying the animator and voice actor and spend it on getting Tim McCarver the old spotless mind treatment with regards to Derek Jeter, Handsome Man and Clutch God.

And another thing: maybe if you guys played games other than the ones involving the Red Sox and the Yankees in the regular season, people would have--get this--some interest in them! These were likable teams; the White Sox had been underdogs the whole year despite winning 99 games, the Astros had Biggio and an end-of-the-line Bagwell finally with their best shot at a championship. But still, in the World Series, they were talking about whether or not the Yankees would overhaul their team in the offseason. Guess what--it wasn't the offseason yet!

And finally, screw baseball, why did you cancel Andy Richter Controls the Universe? Do you guys really just have good sitcoms coming out that fast? I'm sure you could bring in Scooter to explain the lack of a laugh track, it'd be fun!

Sincerely,
A concerned citizen
P.S. Enough with the sideline reporters at baseball games, there aren't any sidelines.

In more baseball-related news, the free agents are coming; the headline name for this year, a bit of a letdown after the Pedro-Beltran spectacular, appears to be Paul Konerko. And whoever signs him, I have a sinking feeling, is going to end up incredibly disappointed, even moreso if their deal runs more than four years. Here we have a player who--seriously--is slower than Jim Thome; has a pronounced (88 points of slugging percentage) platoon split in what is recognized as The home run park of the AL; and has posted a .900 OPS exactly once. When you're a lumbering first baseman this isn't top-of-the-line material, but most of his value is very visible in massive home runs, and the World Series in your contract year usually helps your bottom line. The afore-mentioned Thome--who was a much better hitter in his prime--fell off from his late-20's peak relatively quickly after hitting 30, even before the injuries left him in his current position between a Ryan Howard and a huge contract. Even taking into account that Konerko strikes me as less likely to suffer a lot of injuries than a guy built like Thome, somebody's going to end up overpaying. Thankfully, the Cardinals seem to have first base otherwise occupied for the moment.

In a Former Cardinal Sighting, Mike DeJean--brought in in one of many desperate attempts to save the 2003 bullpen, if you'll remember--has resigned with the Rockies. My immediate reaction--what a huge masochist--still applies somewhat, but looking at his stats he's actually fared pretty well at Coors in his career. Of course, so had Jose Jimenez.
Posted by Dan on 10.28.05 @ 11:34 AM CST [link] [28 Comments]

Wednesday, October 26th

I must admit,

Had the Cardinals been eliminated by the Padres, or by some other trick of fate avoided losing to the Killer B's, I would feel sorry for the Astros at this point. After all, it's not like Cardinals fans would have difficulty relating to a team whose greatest asset collapses on them in the World Series after carrying them all the way to it.

Needless to say, however, I can not feel sorry for them, because they are the Astros and they did eliminate the Cardinals and it's a nice sort of poetic justice that this loss occurs right after the Juice Box is pried open with the Commish's own can-opener. If asked, though, I will continue to maintain that I always preferred Frank Thomas anyway, as far as those two similar first basemen went.

First on the random linking agenda, Bobby V. says he'd like to see a Japan-U.S. World Series. Your pull quote:

Watching our guys all season and the World Series on TV, I can tell you the level of play is equal. Such a competition would be great, and it’s time to do battle.

I’m not talking about all-star exhibition games. I’m talking about two battle-proven teams who have played a season together and know how to play baseball.

I like Bobby Valentine, really, but equal? I hate to pick on Tuffy Rhodes twice in as many posts, but here's his career major league line: .224/.310/.349. And here's his Japanese mark through 2004: .288/.380/.557. Now, obviously, that's an outlier case, but Ichiro, the Matsuis, Tsuyoshi "Remember My Cool Wristbands? Those were cool, right?" Shinjo--really, our own So Taguchi's one of the few Japanese players to improve (eventually...) on his hitting after coming here.

That said, I'm all for the series; Japanese baseball has always interested me, and I'm sure it would be an interesting series--just not as competitive as Captain Spalding suggests.

On the Cardinals front, of course, we're left with nothing but the continued Brian Giles speculation. Not that there's anything wrong with speculating about your team landing one of the best hitters of the last five years. Of course I have my usual worries about the deal--the Cardinals aren't getting any younger, and replacing Walker with Giles--even though there is a five year age difference there--is kind of cheating in that regard. If they replace Matt Morris with Anthony Reyes I suppose they will have done a good job there, but the rotation isn't really the problem; the afore-mentioned elder statesman, after all, will be all of 32 next season.

In Matthew Leach's latest mailbag the issue is brought up as to how long you would sign Giles; he's pretty agile as far as big hulking outfielders go, having played in center field even as recently as last year. He hits for a good average, has played more than 150 games in five of his last six seasons, and has no indications of undergoing a continued decline. I would be hesitant to go for more than three years, but the last agile/hulking guy we got to man right field did pretty well for himself at 39, didn't he?
Posted by Dan on 10.26.05 @ 11:53 AM CST [link] [24 Comments]

Thursday, October 20th

Exile Over

I returned to Baseball Primer to lurk sooner than expected, and was greeted with the following links:

King Doesn't Appear In Postseason.

"I think Flo [Randy Flores] did a great job the times that he pitched, but I'm bitter," King said after the Cardinals were eliminated from the National League Championship Series in six games. "We had eight games, nine games after the last game of the season, and I was pretty much a spectator. If I can't pitch here, then I can pitch somewhere else."

Well then. (The immediate Primer response was "Trade him to Baltimore for Steve Kline!") I like Ray--don't disappoint the posse--but Tyler Johnson could probably take his spot, especially if second-half-Ray comes into Spring Training next year. The thing I don't get is, La Russa gave him every chance in the regular season to prove himself, and... well, he didn't. If not then, then why in a situation in which a no-batters-retired outing would hamstring the team?

Also, Larry Walker announced his retirement. I was hoping he'd stick around for cheap--Broken Down Walker posted an .886 OPS last year, only 36 points lower than a certain Andruw Jones--and 300 good at-bats and solid right field play again, but it's understandable that the guy wants to be able to live a relatively pain-free life more than he wants to receive eight cortisone shots and a bionic neck. Is he a Hall of Famer? 6,907 at-bats, an OPS 40% above the league average when adjusted for Coors, and seven gold gloves, not to mention a ridiculous peak. Borderline, but there are certainly worse players in the Hall. People are going to overadjust for Coors like he's Tuffy Rhodes hitting 55 homers in Japan, but because he quickly outstripped Bichette Happens as the Face of the Franchise he might get a bonus.

And finally, to everybody who's wondering where they'll get their Mike Shannon fix with the Mighty MOX being replaced by the Tinny TRS, try game one of the World Series, where everybody who's got a ticket to New Comiskey will receive an XM Radio. A coupon for one, rather; you have to commit to three months of the service to receive it.

I suggest it--as I said in the comments of the last post, I've gotten enough use out of just the alternative music stations, the decades (40's in particular), and the 24 hour old time radio feed. (Shut up--er, t'ain't funny, McGee.) It's also interesting to hear some of the famed announcers of other teams in a capacity beyond "that one soundbite of Vin Scully from that one game" or "Bob Uecker playing himself as a violent drunk in Major League."

Not that there's anything wrong with Major League. The first two.
Posted by Dan on 10.20.05 @ 12:49 PM CST [link] [37 Comments]

Wednesday, October 19th

Go Chisox

Not much for graceful losing; I hope the Astros get pummeled and Roy Oswalt allows fifteen runs in the deciding game. Sorry, 'sway it is; it's grace enough for me to not wish bodily harm on the players. Aloud.

In the meantime, I'm going to probably take a day or two off so I can avoid reading all the idiotic commentary from both sides. I'll spend it sculpting Thom Brennaman voodoo dolls, donating my time as a Big Brother to handi-capable umpires everywhere, and complaining to anybody who will listen. And rooting against the Astros.

Well, it's been a good season, all things considered; I'm glad I had the chance to rant about it in public, and I'd like to thank everybody who visited on a regular basis and--he continued, hopefully--will continue to make this site a daily--"hourly?" He thought, a greedy look in his eyes and the AdSense sign-up form tabbed in Safari--stop. Hot Stove season is always fun, and I've got some site upgrades and other cool things planned. RE: Hot Stove League: Young slugging outfielder, Walt! You'll thank me later.
Posted by Dan on 10.19.05 @ 10:36 PM CST [link] [45 Comments]

Tuesday, October 18th

How these things work

Two days ago, I was wondering how long I would have to block out the shrill Astros-Chisox coverage and Cardinals Choke Again ruminators before I could begin the Get Up, Baby! Hot Stove season in earnest. Tomorrow, I might be thinking that again.

In the meantime, the Cardinals are now the "expert" favorites.

I don't get it either--winning one game is typically easier than winning two--but I appreciate the rare vote of confidence from the media. Now, Swamp Gas--it's an affectionate nickname now, I swear--if you'd be so kind as to continue shutting Thommy B. and Psycho Steve up, I'd be ever-so-thankful. (And yes, the intent was to make you think of Thom Brennaman doing a generic wacky morning show. Say "She's gonna take her top off!" in his voice, and tell me that wouldn't be the funniest thing ever.)

Back when I was a bigger fan of the NBA than baseball--this was a few years ago, when the Bulls were unstoppable--I used to get the championship retrospective videos every year. And every year there would be, set to dramatic synth violins and nervous crowd shots, some insane thing Michael Jordan did, whether it be the three pointers out of nowhere againt Portland or the Flu Game against Utah, to save a series. But here's the thing: it's all still dependent on actually winning the series. A few Finals losses and we'd be hearing about Kevin Duckworth's brave last stand, or Sam Perkins' perimeter play exposing Bill Cartwright--all the heroics would be a footnote. So, at the very least, Cardinals: win tomorrow. Don't let Pujols's massive home run and the subsequent deadening of a sellout crowd in a closed stadium--I can only imagine that's what it sounded like when Milli Vanilli's record started skipping--get overshadowed by Yet Another Oswalt Gem.
Posted by Dan on 10.18.05 @ 12:22 PM CST [link] [41 Comments]

Monday, October 17th

Phattest Albert

Did he kill that ball, or what? I was writing the concession post. About how I hate the playoffs, that they've strayed from their original purpose to become a bastardized March Madness-like thing, and that the inevitable newspapermen writing about how the Cardinals Didn't Make Plays When It Counted and Weren't Hustling Hard Enough and Third Maxim Ironicized Through Capital Lettering were all talking out their non-talking parts.

I still believe all of that, but luck and crapshoots are fun when they're on your side.

In the meantime, I'm gonna do the same things I was going to do when I was assuming they were going to lose: watch a movie (Charade--can't go wrong with a movie that features Audrey Hepburn, Cary Grant, and Walter Matthau), listen to a little Smoking Popes, and do some writing. (Fiction.) Gotta relax, win or lose. Also, I have to ice down the hand with which I attempted to move the molding around my bedroom door after Berkman's home run.
Posted by Dan on 10.17.05 @ 11:08 PM CST [link] [32 Comments]

Sunday, October 16th

Astrodome'd

So far the Cardinals and Astros have split the Intangible Scrap Derby 1-1; yesterday the Astros made all the sharp plays and timely non-hits that ESPN has decided are the key to the Cardinals' success. Of course, as much as I like the team to play smart, I think this illustration is probably more telling with regards to what the Stros need to ape:

Average OBP, starting Astros not named Morgan or Lance: .315. When you've got Ensberg and Berkman bunched together--right after non-luminaries Biggio and Tavarez, no less--the seven stressless outs that follow tend to stop the momentum of your offense.

So they've got one on guile, the Cardinals have one on guile and offense. Let's see who the better team actually is. It would have been nice to take both of the first games at Busch, because of the considerable home-field advantage some of the Astros hitters have, but I'm sure the Cardinals hitters will figure it out, too. (Eckstein in particular seems like he could hit 20 Biggio-esque home runs playing his home games at Minute Maid.)

Certainly can't blame Mulder for the proceedings; some games the offense just doesn't come all at once. Maybe in some alternate universe there are people on base when Molina hit his two doubles, or he fields that passed ball and the Cardinals keep it together, or Roy Oswalt's arm falls off fielding a bunt. Regardless, it's just a game. They lost three of them against the Astros last year, and that Astros team didn't have an outfield with a high OBP of .316.
Posted by Dan on 10.14.05 @ 11:15 AM CST [link] [41 Comments]

Tuesday, October 11th

Astros again

It took a dream to rouse me from my blog inactivity. A horrible, horrible dream. It wasn't just about the Cardinals, but when they appeared it was to show me that Ray King was pitching in some crucial situation. And all I could think, even in the nightmare: "La Russa's La Russa." And then, I guess, my head exploded. I don't know which part was worse.

Anyway, look, I like suspenseful series and all, but I'd much prefer the Cardinals to steamroll the Astros in four; I've got plenty of suspense still boiling over from last year, and I'd just as soon heat it up as impose again.

We all know where the Cardinals are about now; Abe Nuñez isn't Scott Rolen or, recently, Scott from CardNilly or Scott Baio with the bat, but he'll save some runs with the glove; Jim Edmonds isn't the 2004 model but's still an all-star, Sanders and Walker can hit, et cetera. But where are the Astros, compared to the 2004 club?

Catcher: Brad Ausmus is a whipping boy of some renown, and for good reason; despite having been an awful hitter since his second Houston tour began--way back in 2001--he's considered a vital part of the club by everybody who would have the opportunity to prove otherwise. A big increase in his walk rate--.093, compared to .058 last year--has given him his most valuable season since his days as an underrated catcher with Detroit, Houston, and San Diego in the mid-90's. A .351 OBP from your catcher is good, the .275/.373/.365 after the all-star break even more so. (Yadier Molina since the all-star break: .246/.303/.346.) Obviously Molina's a better defensive catcher than Ausmus at this point, but he's looked mediocre at the plate since returning from injury. (Advantage: Astros, although if you keep a right-hander trained on Ausmus (.247/.332/.302) you can neutralize it.)

First base: Bagwell's injuries have finally caught up to him, but in 2004 he wasn't a particular advantage for them anyway, hitting a good-but-not-great .266/.377/.465. In his place is Lance Berkman, who's an MVP-caliber hitter no matter where he is. I've gotta give him credit for recovering from a Gramatica-esque embarrassing injury--at least he wasn't the placekicker at the flag football game (he was an extremely large Safety)--to post his usual .900 OPS. He's not as much of an asset as he was back when he played center field(!), and he's not Albert Pujols, but he's easily the most dangerous hitter on this team. Turning him around by bringing in a lefty is still effective (depending on the lefty), but he's improved. Early in his career he became... er, Brad Ausmus as a right-handed hitter, but his .294/.416/.429 mark from 2005 makes him more of a slow, fat Tim Raines. More desirable than facing The Lance Berkman, but far from an automatic out.

Second base: Craig Biggio(!) makes his return to second base, despite the Astros starting their top second base prospect in left field for a good portion of the year. The 39-year-old was putting together yet another all-star caliber season, slugging nearly .500 before scuffling to finish with a still-impressive .793 OPS, albeit one without the high OBP we're used to seeing out of him. The new-found power--how many middle infielders set career highs in anything but Golf Rounds Played at 39!?--appears to be a park illusion, as his OPS loses 200 points away from TAFKA Enron Field, the result of pulling nineteen home runs over a left field fence that doesn't exist in most ballparks. The Cardinals should be able to keep him in the ballpark at Busch, but Minute Maid is another story. Grudzielanek is, once again, a considerably better fielder than Biggio, and more consistent, but the Astros suddenly gaining a guy with a .900 OPS is something of a home-field advantage. All at once, now: At least he's not Jeff Kent. My therapist was probably more depressed than Houston at that turn of events.

Third base: this one hurts. Remember that third baseman we had, the one that hit home runs and threw harder than Sidd Finch at the Sports Illustrated company softball game? He was cool. I didn't get to ride the Abraham Nuñez love train, and I'm regretting having missed it because then I wouldn't have so big a pit in my stomach whenever he came up to bat with runners on base. He's hit .241/.288/.266 since August 1, and I believe I speak for Cardinals fans everywhere when I say: please come back, Abraham Nuñez Alien Possessor! Just for the playoffs, I swear. I've been watching a lot of X-Files reruns, and I'm hoping that when it comes to check out my viewing habits I can switch to Ghostbusters and recapture it. In the meantime, however, Morgan Ensberg, surefire rookie of the year candidate-turned-failure-turned-underutilized-masher-turned-failure-again finally--finally for the Astros, I wasn't on the edge of my seat--turned it around and had a huge year as starting third baseman and right-hand Berkman. Like our very own Railsplitter he also fell off after the All-Star break... but when you fall from where he was the resulting .895 OPS isn't going to punch any holes in your offense.

Shortstop: Adam Everett had better be a really, really good shortstop. Like, two Ozzie Smiths playing at the same time good. Because his OPS away from Minute Maid is .566, and even when he's at the juice box he's barely average. However good his defense is, it isn't likely to make up for the colossal advantage the Cardinals get by having a solid hitter at the position. Not a lot to talk about here; everybody knew Everett wasn't going to hit, and I think Eckstein's recent muscling-up at the expense of Woody Williams has served notice that he's having his best season since 2002.

Outfield: The big deal is who isn't there; I'm relieved to learn that Carlos Beltran is in a secure storage facility somewhere in Queens, where he can not possibly hit a massive home run off of a Cardinals pitcher, unless Joe Magrane is on vacation up there or something. This is the Astros' weak point; the best hitter of the three is Jason Lane, a Ken Phelps all-star type who--you'll never have guessed--has a 150 point OPS split between home and away. Altogether he's an average-to-below-average corner outfielder, a low-OBP slugger in the mold of 2004 Reggie Sanders.

Replacing Carlos Baaltran in center field is Wily Taveras, who, for the trouble of putting up a .666 OPS at an outfield position at Minute Maid field, will probably win rookie of the year. I'm assured that he's a Sparkplug at the top of the order who Hustles and Scraps his way into scoring lots of runs, but a .325 OBP at the top of the order sounds like just what the doctor ordered. The doctor that worked on Matt Morris and Jason Isringhausen in the offseason, I mean.

The afore-mentioned second base prospect, Chris Burke, is in right field. He's shown an ability to hit in the PCL--his OPS has hovered around .900 in his AAA stints--but he has a .655 career major league OPS to show for it, consisting mainly of one good month (this past August) and that big home run a few days ago. He's probably better than what he's shown so far, but it's like Biggio--as an outfielder, he hits well for a second baseman.

The big deal, of course, is pitching; like the Cardinals, they've got to worry about the health of their ace. Like the Cardinals, they have a championship-quality left-hander who they didn't have last year. (Although Pettite's played way over his head this year while Mulder's pretty much just been Mark Mulder.) Like the Cardinals, they've got a great staff, if everything breaks right. But isn't that always how it is with pitching? Sometimes I wish they'd just throw a machine out there and call it a day; at least I'd be able to tell when it was losing velocity.
Posted by Dan on 10.11.05 @ 04:49 PM CST [link] [84 Comments]

Sunday, October 9th

Hate to see it happen to Woody

But you love to see it happen. I, like--hopefully--most of us, entertained with a sick determinedness thoughts of the Cardinals blowing Game 3 and, thus stricken, losing the next two as I sleepwalked through the proceedings. This is a common thing in my mind, though, and I don't just do it with baseball games, so by the time Isringhausen came in I could be pretty sure in the still-rational part of my mind that the Cardinals were going to pull it out. So, no more anger over the wild card for this year, particularly if the Braves come back to force Still Another 1996 rematch.

Matty Mo--in the playoffs I've gotta be positive about these things--looked as good as he has in some time, particularly before that fith inning ugliness. The way he's run out of gas lately has to be registering with La Russa, but I guess you don't want a starter with a big home run rate in the bullpen during a close game. He was throwing the curveball effectively for the first time in a while, although it was a sharp, faster curveball instead of the big 12-6 that we've seen from him his entire career.

Woody looked good, really, his curveball was very sharp; it's just that the Cardinals hitters looked better. And that's what you want to see.
Posted by Dan on 10.09.05 @ 02:31 PM CST [link] [35 Comments]

Thursday, October 6th

Some divots to fix

Mark Mulder's GO:FO ratio: 17:1. Yikes. Apparently all that stuff about just shrugging off his last two starts was true, because aside from that second inning he only got out of thanks to former Cardinal farmhand Ben Johnson's strikeout he was untouchable. When you throw 17 ground outs, four double plays isn't that fluky of a total. And so, thanks to a dead-ball groundout rate, he staves off my Daric Barton-related wrath for another several days.

I don't know how the rest of the series is going to play out, since I'm as averse to making further predictions as the guy who scouted Todd Van Poppel, but these first two games the Padres have just not looked like a playoff team. Errors and missed scoring opportunities contribute, but so too do the bizarre--vintage Crazy La Russa era--decisions coming down from their manager.

The Pedro Astacio start, of course, is the weirdest one; it's a classic example of believing so much in "momentum" going into the playoffs that you fail to realize that the player, when all is said and done, just isn't that good. Now, I understand that the Padres were and are pretty much Ace Jacob Peavy and Pray for Reprieve-y, but Pedro Astacio? If you win 82 games, you have to have two pitchers better than Pedro Astacio 2005, who has--through incredible grit and perseverence--just managed to work himself back into fifth-starter shape.

As for game three's action, Woody Williams's fall off the map this year is due primarily to a home run rate that's bigger than it has been since he became a Cardinal back in the middle of 2001; he's got a 3.72 ERA at Petco, but then, a lot of people do. Nevertheless, there's always a chance that he can get the old stuff back for a day, or Matt Morris can explode; at this point, though, it seems like it's going to require the Cardinals to screw up even more than the Padres do.
Posted by Dan on 10.06.05 @ 10:08 PM CST [link] [50 Comments]

Thursday, October 6th

The Electric Barton Swamp Gas Test

Okay, so this is why Uncle Walter traded Daric Barton, Dan Haren and Kiko Calero: Mark Mulder in the playoffs. I'm not saying that a lot of my opinion of Swamp Gas depends on how he performs here--I'm not saying it, but it's probably true--but if he would be so kind as to throw, say, eight scoreless, I'd be happy to let one of the relievers spot him the other one.

Today's pre-game links: Bernie Mik has your usual pre-game look at a starting pitcher without a lot of playoff experience (for us.) Mulder's explanation for his September struggles?

Mulder has acknowledged a failure to always be wired in mentally, and he admits to shrugging off his final two starts of the regular season. He was plastered for seven earned runs in 1 2/3 innings at Milwaukee, then came home to walk seven Cincinnati Reds in his final outing. This avid golfer obviously endorses the concept of mulligans.

I don't know that the official Cardinals fan forum will be particularly pleased over admitting to blowing a few games off here and there, but I'm glad somebody at least admitted it. Provided it's not an excuse--and if it is, Mulder doesn't know St. Louis fans well enough. Somebody had to sacrifice another goat to the gods Scrappinerva and Ahustlin' Mazda to make up for that sound bite, no doubt.

Meanwhile, Brian Gunn continues to contribute to the Hardball Times from beyond the blogging grave, and it continues to be good stuff. Among other things, he agrees that Carpenter is better but not all the way back, and he discusses the Padres' defense, which has been overrated, in grand backup catcher fashion, because they can't hit.

Finally, the San Diego Union-Tribune has a more traditional look at their starting pitcher, one-time Rockies ace Pedro Astacio. We've already been over him--scroll down--and if you're looking for quotes from Pedro, be aware that he appears to have taken several correspondence courses with Crash Davis:

"Today," Astacio said, "it is a game. Pitch and have fun ... that is the plan."

I'm not going to be able to watch and have fun, so good luck with that, man.
Posted by Dan on 10.06.05 @ 11:59 AM CST [link] [42 Comments]

Tuesday, October 4th

The Reggie Sanders Show

Hey, it's the 2005 Cardinals! I knew they were around somewhere.

Chris Carpenter--you remember him, don't you?--wasn't all the way back to where he was in the Summer of Shutout, but he worked out of a jam induced by errors from Eckstein and the first base umpire and flashed a rejuvenated fastball and more consistent curveball in the process.

The bullpen... well, get that out of your systems now, if you could. That sound you hear is Al Reyes warming up left-handed, just in case.

But the hitting... that was cathartic. J-Rod and John Gall both did well filling in for them, but having Walker and Sanders back just makes the lineup that much more difficult to pitch through.

This is why I don't worry about momentum; this isn't football, where you've got to march one hundred yards before you can score a touchdown, and then you can pin the other team against their own end zone afterwards. In baseball all you have to do is throw one bad pitch, or miss a few fastballs

As for Pedro Astacio, tomorrow's starter... I was totally sure he wasn't in the big leagues until he got mentioned during the roundtable. When last I had seen him he was getting killed for the Red Sox in a 2004 cameo appearance. Apparently, though, he's been toiling in anonymity all year, for Texas and San Diego.

Much of the fuss in San Diego comes from his fantastic run since the beginning of August; in his last seven starts he's pitched 45 innings, with a 2.20 ERA. Here's the thing, though... let's take a look at those 45 innings:


 ERA  K/9  BB/9	HR/9  K/BB
2.20  4.8   2.4  .40  2.00

The strikeout rate should be the first thing that catches your eye; post-losing-it Matt Morris has that strikeout rate, and Pedro Astacio in his prime was striking out eight and a half per nine. The walk rate's solid, and the home run rate's outstanding, but here's the other thing: only one of those starts (in Arizona) wasn't in a pitcher's park, and RFK and Petco are both particularly extreme in the way they keep home runs off the board. His GO:FO ratio isn't anything to write home about, either, so it seems like he's just gotten lucky with the home run. Of course, that doesn't mean he's any likely to be less lucky in his next start, just that he's not been a 2.20 ERA pitcher over this span in any way other than... well, the ERA.

It's hunches like these that I think hurt a lot of playoffs chances; when you count on "momentum" and "hot streaks", you can look pretty silly when they stop and/or cool down. And when the momentum is conserved and used by the other team's sportswriting masses after a team jumps on your hot hand, you just have to hope and pray that they start a guy because he's four for his last five and repay the favor.
Posted by Dan on 10.04.05 @ 05:38 PM CST [link] [42 Comments]

Tuesday, October 4th

The AL strikes again

Obviously nothing makes more sense than to give one of the playoff series with a west-coast team the earliest start; the other game features the Red Sahhhx, come on! While I'm busy in school, whipping myself for being so wicked as to not be that interested in Sawx/Yanks XXXVII, try some of these links:

Did anybody else who read this article have the theme song from The Odd Couple playing in their head while they read it? I pegged Reggie as the Felix Unger of the two, but you make your own call.

I can't liveblog, but apparently this will be updated throughout the game by Jeff Gordon. I wish he'd get to discussing Carpenter's velocity before I've got to get to class.

This article hits all of the cogent Padres-related points; the Mets of the 70's, the short series, etc. I'm telling you, they had this pegged much better when the winner of the National League was the National League champion and that was that; has anyone figured whether or not ulcers are on the rise since 1903? I mean, I prefer them over, say, tuberculosis, but it's a little nerve-wracking.

Giles Watch I: four pitches, two fouls, and one called third strike. I'll take it!

Through one inning, Carpenter looks like this: 23 pitches, 13 strikes. He walked Klesko and got outs in play on the other two hitters. According to people who are actually getting to watch the game, he's getting squeezed.

Jimmy! And that's all I've got to say about that; Old Testament Studies calls. As much as I like arguing with nuns, I'd much rather be watching the game; but at least, in my heart of hearts, I can know that our superiors in Boston will be able to watch at their leisure. And, really, isn't that what's important?

Posted by Dan on 10.04.05 @ 12:27 PM CST [link] [38 Comments]

Monday, October 3rd

Cardsblog Roundtable Part Four

[Gather round, friends and neighbors, and see what happens when a bevy of Cardsbloggers has more than an hour during which to complain, explain, and in my case try far too hard to be funny. This is part four of the roundtable. Part one is at Viva El Birdos, and you can follow it from there. If you have been already, part five should be on the Birdwatch shortly, and part six is already up at the Diaspora. So, start at VEB, or read on:]

PART FOUR
IN WHICH THE BLOGGERS GET A SECOND WIND
bellyscratcher: I feel like we didn't get to any of the questions.
Scott: What else did you want to talk about?
bellyscratcher: I dunno. I'm drunk.

THEIR CONFIDENCE IN ABE NUNEZ IS CONFIDED
Dan Up: can Marquis play third base? I like his bat
Rob: Can Taguchi play 3B?

AND A NEW WORK-SAFE TERM FOR INEBRIATION IS BORN

Dan Up: (is anybody else depressed by Jeff Fassero's effectiveness this year?)
Rob: [Birdwatch] Fassero and the locusts.
lboros: [VEB] belly had a nice question: what are your playoff superstitions?
Scott: [CardNilly Also one where Pulsipher relieved Kevin Jarvis (we lost).
bellyscratcher: [bellyitcher] Sure could use that LOOGY now, huh?
Ryan: [Diaspora] same shirt if winning games
bellyscratcher: I have a shirt. And, ahem, a pair of underwear.
Ryan: same meal, same routine...and everything
Scott: I had a whole set of superstitions last year, which worked up until the World Series. Then they stopped working. So none right now.
lboros: what were they?
Scott: Lessee -- I had some lucky shoes, and I filled out my scorebook in a certain way, and didn't stand up for the seventh inning stretch and stuff like that.
bellyscratcher: Also, I've used the same rubber band for my hair all season.
Dan Up: My superstition is to adopt this macho, fatalist posture during playoff games--it'd be like James Dean if I had the jawline or the leather jacket. On the inside, of course, I'm freaking out.
Rob: I put my stuff in locker 67 at the gym. Never locker 68.
lboros: i used to have a pair of red socks, like the devil in "damn yankees." wore em all season in 1985
Ryan: yeah, we have to put glass items away, just in case
bellyscratcher: Oh, I have to keep eating Tums, but I don't think that's a superstition.
lboros: and beer
lboros: and scotch
lboros: and stuff
bellyscratcher: Only Budweiser products
Scott: That's just good livin'
Ryan: bud cans
lboros: cigars
Dan Up: judging by the conversation here I'll have a whole list of new superstitions when I turn 21
Scott: Clydesdales were cool at the park today...
bellyscratcher: I am old.
Ryan: you should go to college in Wyoming, 21 meant 18 for us
Scott: Izzat still true? I heard that Nawlins was the last place for that?
lboros: another reason to mourn
bellyscratcher: The horses were awesome. I cried.
Ryan: it's not true at all, much to my mother's displeasure
Ryan: and checkbook
Ryan: and my student loans
Dan Up: It sounds like you went a little heavy on the "superstitions"
lboros: i've been to wyoming
lboros: w/ out the superstitions it can get kinda depressing
Ryan: it's a good place to major in fly fishing!
bellyscratcher: Where are the Superstition Mts.?
Ryan: Arizona
bellyscratcher: Oh
bellyscratcher: That's not as good as I hoped.
Rob: I yell obscenities at Tim McCarver. That's probably not a superstition.
bellyscratcher: No, that's normal
Dan Up: Rob that's just careful viewing
lboros: i gotta go do some dad duty. before i check out of here ---- are we gonna win the world series or not? gut feeling
Ryan: i am pretty confident about the NL, BOS and NYY worry me (the hitting)
Scott: I say yes. Why root for it if you don't believe?
Ryan: exactly
bellyscratcher: I fear not the Yankees. Yes. We will win.
lboros: i put 'em down in april for the title, so i'm sticking w it
Ryan: i honestly think the choke is our biggest obstacle
lboros: rob ---- you?
bellyscratcher: Tightness...it's a worry
Scott: The guys have looked good the last couple days -- big media crush, big pressure to go to 100 wins -- and they came through. I think they're pissed they didn't do it last year, and want it bad this year.
Rob: I don't have strong feelings. I'm going to try to enjoy the games, which is more difficult than it should be.
Dan Up: If baseball were played according to my gut Chris Carpenter would burst into flames during the National Anthem
bellyscratcher: Yikes
lboros: could we replace him on the playoff roster if that happened?
Dan Up: I think there's a Spontaneous Combustion list
Scott: Got a buddy that feels that way about Izzy -- couple days ago he just decided to reverse the karma and become Izzy's biggest fan. No blown saves yet!
Dan Up: but he'd still be on the 40 man
Ryan: i really believe we're there mentally, there's just one acceptable outcome in the eyes of Pujols and walker knows this is his last shot, we have a lineup that can outdo anyone
bellyscratcher: Albert is possessed this year.
lboros: ok you guys i gotta go. i'm in trouble . . . . . . thanks a bunch, this was a blast.
Rob: Albert can get too jacked up.
bellyscratcher: See Sept. 9 through Thurs
Dan Up: anybody have a feeling somebody's gonna go Roy Hobbs this year?
Scott: Nunez
lboros: eckstein
bellyscratcher: Grudz
Dan Up: we've been focusing on people slumping, might as well put some optimism in
Rob: Yadier.
Dan Up: I'm looking for a Jim Edmonds hot streak
Ryan: walker gets 6 HRs
Dan Up: he's due
lboros: good call rob --- my 2d choice
lboros: anybody for sanders?
Ryan: this is Larry's year, Reggie's too
bellyscratcher: Hittin' shoes
Ryan: amen
lboros: thanks again folks. enjoy it, i'll be readin ya
bellyscratcher: Ditto
Ryan: bye
Ryan: we're a neurotic bunch. if we were BOS fans we'd have 100% confidence and would fist fight anyone who disagreed
Rob: Then we'd jump off bridges if they got behind.
Dan Up: Next time we do this I'll have to turn TV Land off, the Andy Griffith show kept distracting me
Ryan: I missed Family Guy for this, and it was worth it
bellyscratcher: tivo
Scott: true dat, sistah
bellyscratcher: I feel like we didn't get to any of the questions.
Scott: What else did you want to talk about?
bellyscratcher: I dunno. I'm drunk.
Rob: Yeah, I wanted to say bad things about Nunez.
Scott: Abe? Really?
bellyscratcher: Poor Abe.
Ryan: aw come on
Dan Up: I haven't trusted Mighty Mighty Abraham all year, so maybe if I do it now while he's slumping he'll come back
Ryan: if walker, pujols, JEd and Reggie hit like they're capable of, we have all the power we need
bellyscratcher: Ummmm...can they actually hold a lead in the early innings?
Rob: Well, I want to see somebody else get some ABs from Abe. No obvious candidates though.
Ryan: Mabes is in the tank this year
Scott: Well, trusting Abe is different than enjoying the ride... And he's certainly outperforming Mabry.
Scott: Who DHs? Larry with Gooch in the OF?
Dan Up: can Marquis play third base? I like his bat
Rob: Can Taguchi play 3B?
bellyscratcher: Asked and answered
bellyscratcher: Marquis for DH
Scott: Maybe JRod?
bellyscratcher: So was a SS in Japan, I think.
Ryan: Yeah, TLR will use play with the DH slot a ton in the WS
Dan Up: I'd rather see Sanders DH-ing if you put Taguchi in the outfield, just because he couldn't throw me out from third base
Dan Up: anybody's better than the Marlon Anderson Experience
bellyscratcher: Oh, that was a question I had. Sanders' leg and fielding.
Dan Up: He's looked really tentative out there

Remember: Part five at the Birdwatch.

Posted by Dan on 10.03.05 @ 11:25 AM CST [link] [109 Comments]

Our Pitcher Gets His Due

If this were 1995

I must admit,

Exile Over

Go Chisox

How these things work

Phattest Albert

More substantive content soon

Astrodome'd

Astros again

Hate to see it happen to Woody

Some divots to fix

The Electric Barton Swamp Gas Test

The Reggie Sanders Show

The AL strikes again

Cardsblog Roundtable Part Four