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Wednesday, November 30th

Bernie Breaks Radio Silence

I get the feeling that this offseason has been tough for the most accessible of the Post-Dispatch columnists; Jocketty's been about as forthcoming with information as the North Korean government, and what's a St. Louis sports columnist going to do with stories of Kim Jong Il making mountains crumble by staring at them? About twenty minutes ago on his forum he managed this cryptic remark:

Post subject: Checking out STL/Burnett rumors...
They're flying...nothing confirmed yet.
I'll keep checking.
--B

Okaaay then. Perhaps the Abreu stuff was smokescreen after all. In any case, I hope somebody's been recycling their bottles and cans; Burnett's not going to come cheap. Mortgage new Busch!

And then, just as I was about to press submit and call it a day:

Post subject: Burnett to Cardinals: Not true
I reached a high-ranking Cardinals official about the rumor of the day...
Have the Cardinals signed A.J. Burnett?
No. Absolutely not. That was the answer.
But they are keeping the dialogue open with his agent.
--B

Well, then. Now, as J.P. Ricciardi proved by "not signing" B.J. Ryan, denial is often the best confirmation. Not that I hope the Cardinals are following their lead on, say, terms of the contract. In any case, I have a feeling that at this point Bernie Mik has a guy who knows a guy who installs spy cameras on the phone.
Posted by Dan on 11.30.05 @ 11:25 AM CST [link] [17 Comments]



Tuesday, November 29th

Our American Cousin'd

"Don't know the manners of good society, eh? Well, I guess I know enough to turn you inside out, old gal—you sockdologizing old man-trap!"

Yes, it's the end of the Annihilation Proclamation era in St. Louis; but far be it from being struck down during the funniest line in the play, Abraham O. Nuñez leaps off this particular coil $3.35 million richer. O Captain! My Captain!

Two years, $1.7M per. Who would have thought that he would be making... well, anything more than meal money, really, back last January when he joined the team on a minor league contract? At the time I was more interested in Chris Gissell (who had a good season in AAA) and Bob File (who... disappeared off the map.) But I refuse to be blamed for that--the man was coming off of a .593 OPS, which is Einar-esque.

And now... two years, $1.7M per. It just goes to show that, for all the harping and lip-service managers and GMs give to consistency, they don't want it. At least, they aren't really looking for it. For two months this past summer, Abraham Nuñez was a rich man's version of Ichiro!, hitting .364 with walks and power. For the rest of the year, he was Abraham Nuñez, no-hit, 25th man defensive infielder. The Phillies are paying for two months that he hasn't had before, and will never have again. Undoubtedly in the name of consistency.

So, congrats on defrauding another team, Abe. Really, I'm happy for him; as long as he isn't costing the Cardinals money, I hope he makes all the money he can. It was a good two months.
Posted by Dan on 11.29.05 @ 07:50 PM CST [link] [18 Comments]


Tuesday, November 29th

Deep Analysis

Q) Would I be willing to part with Marquis, Reyes, and change for Bobby Abreu?
A) .303/.411/.512.

Q) Would I inevitably complain about losing another top prospect?
A) SEE: Daric Barton

Q) Should I--a new I, now, the avatar of all of the sites' viewers--comment on the post preceding this one?
A) Yes.
Posted by Dan on 11.29.05 @ 12:16 PM CST [link] [8 Comments]



Monday, November 28th

Patient Zero

Back when our NL Central pals inked Scott Eyre to a three year, eleven million dollar deal, I chalked it up as a kind of madness localized in a certain segment of Chicago; of course it was related to the Philadelphia Aging Reliever Virus, and sure, there were some wild-eyed scientists claiming it had a direct link to the Great Isringhausen Scare of 2001, but we didn't know then what we do now. Like AIDS and the typhoid fever, only now have we realized that the Scott Eyre signing was evidence of a much more sinister problem, lurking beneath the surface. He was Patient Zero of the 2005 Above Average Plague, and like all such Wobegon-derived maladies it's not funny--not funny at all.

And as the Esteban Loaiza deal proves--three years, twenty-one million bucks--the epidemic is going to get worse before it gets better. Esteban Loaiza had an outstanding year in 2003, and a good year in 2005. He is going on thirty-four, and his career ERA is just barely below average. Last year he played in a ballpark that is rumored to have applied for statehood sometime in the nineteenth century. He is a fine pitcher for the back of rotations everywhere, but he is presently making nearly as much money per year as Jeff Suppan has from 2004-2006. Suppan, who is three years younger, posted a 120 ERA+ last year.

These things spread, as is now becoming abundantly clear; one spread several years ago, in the age of giving stars like Manny Ramirez and A-Rod contracts that could only be doled out in huge, weekly chunks of molten platinum. What we are witnessing now is the new plague--one in which above-average, inconsistent pitchers like Loaiza, A.J. Burnett, and Matt Morris get paid closer money, and ace closers like Billy Wags and B.J. Ryan get paid Oprah money. These contracts are going to look bad now, but just wait until one of Wagner, Ryan, or Burnett is millstoning his team as they try to sign a player during the next outbreak. Middle relievers who throw the screwball, for all I know.
Posted by Dan on 11.28.05 @ 10:57 PM CST [link] [24 Comments]


Monday, November 28th

Caldred, Blue Jays et al

Not often you see a guy retire for financial reasons, but according to the Post-Dispatch Cal Eldred has decided to call it... er, another career. It's not a huge surprise; at this point his arm is about as stable as Yakov Smirnov's career, circa 1989, and throwing in a heart problem is just overkill.

It's understandably not huge news--the back of the bullpen is such that I half-expect an intrepid reporter to look back there one day and find Jesse Orosco's skeleton, left hand dangling from the Nautilus equipment--but you'd think it could at least crack the Cardinals front page ahead of SAVING TWENTY PERCENT ON ALL MERCHANDISE BEFORE 2 PM CENTRAL !! and the weeks-old Frick news.

I'll always remember him as the guy who kept the bullpen from exploding in 2003, along with Kiko Calero; he was one of the first NRIs that I followed from Spring Training on, and even after his ERA ballooned to 135.00(!) a few appearances into his comeback he kept it together. Over his Cardinals career he managed to throw his slider by enough hitters to put up a 3.31 ERA--wouldn't you know it, the same 3.31 ERA the Cubs just threw Scott Eyre $11 million at to duplicate. So, here's to you, Cal Eldred--I have no idea why you were effective, but you were, and that works for me.

As for the Blue Jays... well, they're spending money like they don't realize the players are looking for American dollars. B.J. Ryan as the richest reliever in history? Well... I guess that if you're going to throw FORTY-SEVEN MILLION DOLLARS at a relief pitcher he's as good as any, but... forty-seven million dollars for a relief pitcher? That's not all--the Blue Jays are now committed to signing one of the Burnett/Giles set as well. Now, what they do in the Great White North doesn't have a lot of bearing on the Cardinals, because they still aren't going to make the World Series, but if they sign Giles and suddenly find themselves needing a young, hard-throwing right-handed pitcher? That's it, Vernon Wells, that's it--come to Papa Walt.
Posted by Dan on 11.28.05 @ 11:50 AM CST [link] [18 Comments]



Thursday, November 24th

Catching Up

"No posts for a week? You're slipping, sir."

"I know, Hypothetical Secretary. Pixie-ishly Attractive Hypothetical Secretary. Walk gracefully into my office and tell me what I missed, with gamine charm. And numbers, the people like numbers."

"Right, Mr. Moore. Numbers."

"So, what'd I miss? Hasn't been that long."

"The Thome deal went down?"

"Really? You're kidding me."

"Nope."

"Right, of course--you're the gamine, pixie-ishly attractive earnest Hypothetical Secretary. Had a temp in here the other day, you'll have to excuse me."

"So, about the..."

"Trade, yes."

"Thome for Aaron Rowand. Lots of cash to the White Sox, some prospects to the Phils."

"Wait, the White Sox acquired an injury-prone first baseman in his mid-30's with declining production? Didn't they just turn down Frank Thomas's option?"

"Yes, sir. Rumor's they might bring Thomas back, too, and platoon them at first and DH."

"That'll be good, for about five weeks. Thanks for setting me up for that joke, HS."

"Any time, sir. General opinion is the White Sox got fleeced, even before the prospects got into the deal. Rowand'd have two gold gloves if he hit well enough."

"Right. Thome had ten straight seasons over a .925 OPS before last year, though, there's gotta be some bounce back even at 35. And if he replaces Jurassic Carl Everett in the lineup, instead of Konerko/Thomas, that's nice production."

"So I've heard."

"Anything from the Cardinals?"

"Two restraining orders, and one very nasty letter."

"... and newswise?"

"Nothing much. Still in the Burnett sweepstakes, and the Yankees have backed off of Giles."

"All right. Well, send those restraining orders to the Hypothetical Attorney, and HS?"

"Yes?"

"Don't let me slack off like that again. I don't want to use any more bizarre fiction devices this year."

"Yes, Mr. Moore."

"Call me Dan. Oh, and put some Mancini on the hi-fi before you leave--I have some hypothetical lady-friends that I need to seem urbane in front of."

"Right away."
Posted by Dan on 11.24.05 @ 11:47 PM CST [link] [24 Comments]



Friday, November 18th

Raise the Alarm

We've hit DEFCON 1, ladies and gents; Jocketty and Tony meeting with Burnett in Florida. I wouldn't be so worried, except the other recent news is that his agent is demanding no less than a five year deal. Five years. The last pitcher to get a five year deal was... No, no, it's too painful.

Of course, unlike with Park it's easy to see the reasons people like Burnett; he strikes out 8.5 batters per nine innings, he's got an extremely low home run rate, and he boosted his groundout:flyout ratio last year to a very nice 2.42. He's got all of the peripherals expected of a frontline starter, a Cy Young candidate even... except he's walked 3.97 batters per nine innings over his career, and it was only "down" to 3.40 this year. And while that 3.45 ERA looks nice, remember that he managed to end up with seventeen unearned runs to his name. Between the sinkerballing ways and the raw stuff, I have little doubt that Dave Duncan has been calling Jocketty and La Russa every few hours to see how things are going, but gambling that your pitching coach can straighten him out is a big gamble to place a five year contract on.

If they sign him, of course, it'll most likely mean happy trails to Marquis, and the Trade-for-an-Outfielder Derby will begin in earnest. I think that, as far as the attainable players go, I most like the hypothetical deals for Vernon Wells and Brad Wilkerson. Wilkerson had a mediocre 2005, both at home and on the road, but I think playing in RFK's unfriendly confines messed up his swing; prior to '05 he had put together three consecutive seasons playing an average center field and getting on base with at least a .370 clip. He's not as exciting athletically as Wells, but he's a better bet to rake.

In other NL Central news... remember how we were all mad when we thought the Cardinals overpaid on Julian Tavarez? Two years, $2.4 million? And how we--well, I was at least--worried that the Cardinals, coming off of the 2003 Bullpen Shop of Horrors, had overvalued veteran relievers? This is like one of those commercials where it shows a guy being late for a meeting or spilling coffee and feeling like his day is horrible... and then it cuts to kids in Namibia who haven't eaten in three weeks, and you just feel awful. Because the Cubs just signed Scott Eyre to a three year deal worth eleven million dollars. Eleven! Scott "I Had to Look Him Up" Eyre is a 33 year old LOOGY who, in the past four years, has posted ERAs of 4.46, 3.32, 4.10, and 2.48 over the last four years. We all know that the one thing holding back last year's Cubs team was their lack of a lefty specialist who may or may not perform well--and now, for only a slight markup, they've got their intermittently effective man. This is the part where the number flashes on the screen, and the old guy tells you to donate to the Christian Cubbies Fund. Do it; I'm sponsoring Tuffy Rhodes.
Posted by Dan on 11.18.05 @ 11:40 AM CST [link] [15 Comments]



Tuesday, November 15th

Lankford/Redman/MVP angst (aka: typical GUB post)

Deadspin is on board the Retire Willie McGee's Number train; it's good to have a mainstream blogger as a Cardinals fan, because if McGee had played for another team he wouldn't have shown up on Deadspin unless he was photographed drinking with a pack of hookers. Anyway, I like Willie, and I'm certainly not opposed to his number being retired, but it would be criminal to retire it but not Ray Lankford's #16. As I've said before (many, many times), Lankford not only played just as many seasons with the club, but also posted an OPS around 25% higher than the league average. McGee had an above-average OPS with the Cardinals six times, four as a starter, and finished his career almost exactly average. Certainly he was a better defensive center fielder, but unless he had to patrol Central Park he can't make up that kind of offensive gap.

I understand fully that Willie McGee's better loved, and that that should have some effect on whose numbers are retired, but this much of an effect? It's not Lankford's fault he came up on the Irrelevant-Early-90's Edition of the club instead of the beginning of the Whiteyball era, and was inexplicably overshadowed by Brian Jordan and then--ah, explicably overshadowed by Mark McGwire on subsequent clubs. So retire both, or retire neither, and then be prepared to retire a third centerfielder's number after Edmonds hangs 'em up.

From Birdwatch Dan (previously TedSimmonsFan if I remember correctly), pretty much exactly what I was going to say about Wayne Hagin's departure. Trying too hard pretty much sums everything up, from the attempt at making "You can kiss it goodbye!" a catchphrase to his vocal inflection, which would sometimes be almost humorously colloquial. It was like if one of the yuppies from Thirtysomething had been in a PAXTV remake of Green Acres.

He wasn't a bad announcer, certainly, and I wish him the best; but hopefully this new guy will leave the catchphrases to Mike Shannon.

Also via the Birdwatch, RADIO EDIT Your Couch has heard via XM that Phat Albert managed to snatch the MVP from the Andruw Jones machine. Don't know if it it's true yet, but it would definitely be cool. And funny, because this is arguably his second-"worst" season. Yeah, he's, uh, pretty good.

Viva El Birdos has a list of the first minor league pick-ups. Michel Hernandez is the most likely to have an impact; it goes without saying that he's at least as capable as last year's Einar Diaz model. He in fact was something of a token prospect back with the Yankees (around when Jimmy Journell was token prospect for the Cardinals), a catch-and-throw guy who actually had some upside as a hitter. Does he still have it? Well, can he post an OPS above .550? For a Cardinals backup catcher, that's huge upside. Prentice Redman, another New York ex-prospect (though this one's from Queens) could also pop up, although skirting so near Tike Redman being on the team is enough to send me to a therapist. According to his minor league numbers this one can actually hit, though--actually, he probably becomes a "prospect" again as a Cardinal--so I suppose I could be strong.
Posted by Dan on 11.15.05 @ 12:29 PM CST [link] [25 Comments]



Monday, November 14th

One down

In a surprise move Clutch God/Biggest of the Papis David Ortiz lost to Alex Rodriguez in the race for AL MVP. It's not like this should have been tough; A-Rod is a surefire Hall of Famer who had his best season with the bat in his career--.321/.421/.610--and played an above-average third base. Ortiz had pretty much the same season he had last year, in which he placed fourth in the balloting, gave up 20 points of OBP to Rodriguez despite playing in a hitter's park, and oh by the way played all of ten games in the field, during which he managed a fielding percentage of .976 and gracewise made Frank Thomas look like Thurman Thomas. He wasn't even the best DH in ESPN territory--that Jason Giambi was pretty good.

What does this mean for the NL MVP race, where the two best players in the league battle the second best center fielder on the NL Gold Glove team? Well, one can only hope that this wasn't some backroom deal worked out between the sabermetric believers and the Plaschke-ites; Annnndruw is an even less-deserving candidate than Ortiz. I hope it's Pujols, obviously, but Lee's got a fine case, too.

This also proves the maxim that one should never, ever, ever pay attention to the bottom of the results. Somebody honestly thought that Bob Wickman was the eighth most valuable player in the American League last year. Someone--someone who is supposed to be an EXPERT on sports, someone who's trusted enough to vote for the Hall of Fame, someone who's a member in good standing of the BBWAA--thought that, not only was Ortiz better than A-Rod, Vladimir Guerrero was better than both of them. Jhonny Peralta, who put together an .885 OPS as a shortstop, had zero votes. Not a one. Chone Figgins had five, Jorge Cantu and Jose Contreras had one, but a shortstop with a .520 slugging percentage got zip. Figgins, I think, wins the inexplicable multiple vote award for this year; despite being basically league average with the bat, he got as many votes as Giambi and Bartolo "Cy Young?" Colon combined. I'm not condemning all sportswriters--I might become one myself--but really, please don't vote unless your IQ is higher than Chris Carpenter's batting average.
Posted by Dan on 11.14.05 @ 04:29 PM CST [link] [27 Comments]



Friday, November 11th

No Love for Mike Shannon


Posted by Dan on 11.11.05 @ 11:35 AM CST [link] [57 Comments]



Thursday, November 10th

Congrats Carp

You all know this already, but congratulations nonetheless to Carpenter for winning the 2005 Cy Young. Was he better than Dontrelle? In terms of peripherals, undoubtedly. Is he cooler than Dontrelle? Of course.

I just wish they wouldn't have announced it between my last post and the time that the class I just had ended. Alas and alack.
Posted by Dan on 11.10.05 @ 02:44 PM CST [link] [18 Comments]


Thursday, November 10th

Soriano would be a Boone

Uh oh. From Ken Rosenthal, with a hat tip (do we do these in sports blogs?) to the St. Louis Sports Forum, Bret Boone has met with the Cardinals. Stop me if you've heard this before--he's begun an "extensive off-season conditioning program", through which he hopes to return to his glory days, or his useful days. He's met with the Royals, too, and they're more likely to be desperate enough to hand him a starting job, so I wouldn't worry yet. But this could be trouble.

Now, admittedly, he was a decent starting second baseman as recently as 2004, when he went .251/.317/.423 at Safeco, and that .294/.366/.535 is just the year before that. But in 2005 he was almost Neifi bad, and his defense has slipped considerably. I wouldn't mind him on the Cardinals, but only if he signs a minor league deal after they've acquired a starting second baseman, be it Grudz or...

Well, as per the same Rosenthal article, Alfonso Soriano. Soriano's a risky proposition; it's all dependent on whether both teams realize he's nowhere near as valuable as he was even while he was being overrated in New York. For those of you who are understandably disinterested in following the Texas Rangers, he's put together .280/.324/.484 and .268/.309/.512 years since then, including a nice 30-2 stolen base year in '05. Due to the AgeGate thing that broke when he moved to the Rangers, rather than being a young player on the downswing he's... well, a guy going on 30 on the downswing. Of course, when you're dealing with Ballpark in Arlingt--well, whatever their park is named now... when you're dealing with numbers from over there, it's helpful to check out the home road splits.

Well, they're pretty ugly. At Arlington last year he hit .311/.355/.656. Away from Arlington? .224/.265/.374. While that would scream four years, 30 million to the Cubs, I can't see the Cardinals getting so excited. He posted a .735 OPS away from Texas in 2004, and sometimes playing in an extreme hitters park can ruin a player's road numbers... but ouch. What happened to Alfonso Soriano, Future MVP? And why did they trade A-Rod for this guy?

I'm sure Marquis just loves all this trade talk, but for a going-on-thirty middle infielder with average defense and a potent bat but severe OBP issues, I would just barely cross the Marquis Barrier, and only because Reyes is waiting in the wings. Would the Rangers accept him straight-up for Soriano? Beats me. Would I add anything more than Wainwright, or some cool Busch Stadium memorabilia? No. Sure beats Kevin Mench, though.
Posted by Dan on 11.10.05 @ 12:53 PM CST [link] [21 Comments]



Tuesday, November 8th

Cardinals One Step Closer to Division Win

Neifi Perez inks two year deal with Cubs, reportedly worth $6 million. Yes, the same contract given to Reggie Sanders back in 2003-2004. For Neifi Perez. The size of the contract also implies they imagine the 32-year-old Perez, who had a career-high OPS+ of 77 last year (23% below average), to be a competent starter. Neifi Perez's career line is .270/.301/.380. He's spent about half his career playing for the Colorado Rockies. He once hit .236/.260/.303 over an entire season. There're no jokes to be made, here, friends. Like Michael Jackson, a mention of his name is enough to temporarily turn anyone into Bob Hope. In fact, it's funny to everybody except Cubs fans and Ronny Cedeno, the erstwhile SS prospect whom Dusty Baker will now certainly block for another season. Behind Neifi Perez.

Now you understand why Walt didn't make a trade for an established reliever at the deadline. As has been said before, this is the last time anybody asks him to work on a cutter.

When the GM denies he's looking to trade Kevin Mench, you start to worry. Naturally, this means a trade is imminent. I don't want to keep mentioning him, because I think that would only encourage some particularly impish baseball god to engineer an eighteen-team deal that leaves the Cardinals with Kevin Mench, Neifi Perez and an inadvertantly-resurrected Silver King. But are we really that sure that some platoon of The Johns couldn't put up the same numbers as Mench? And do you really want me to call him uberMench every time, ironic or not? Because you know it'd happen, and there's really nothing I can do about it.
Posted by Dan on 11.08.05 @ 12:40 PM CST [link] [22 Comments]



Monday, November 7th

"Farewell Busch"

"Farewell, Abraham," said John Wilkes Booth with a longing, sad tone resonating through his voice.

Overdramatic? But of course. Nevertheless, the ridiculousness of the whole ordeal has never failed to bother me. What this means in the short term is that I will be unable to visit the official Cardinals webpage or anyplace else that will be rolling clips and big pictures of the event until Brian Giles signs someplace and the spotlight is off. In the long term, it means I will have an object to despise throughout the 2006 season. So I guess it's not all bad.

Meanwhile, the team that will play on the blatantly faux-retro field several months from now is still in flux; if Bill DeWitt doesn't loosen the pursestrings a little, having expressed that as a reason for building the new stadium, you can expect a talk radio uproar over it. (And for once, I'll agree with them.) If the only new things at Busch Stadium next year are several tons of flourescent red brick and a sushi bar, I'll feel vindicated in my three year crusade.

As for the things they're auctioning off... well, who wouldn't want one of the disturbing, poorly-drawn, Mean Cardinals that hung on the walls of Busch? Seriously, that would be quite the souvenir. I'm angry that they didn't offer the Giant Neon Pitching/Hitting sign that hung over the concession stand I frequented (Section 136) but knowing that the hideous angry-looking Cardinals will live on in somebody's basement for all time is some consolation. May They Frighten Small Children Forever, Amen.
Posted by Dan on 11.07.05 @ 11:15 AM CST [link] [23 Comments]



Saturday, November 5th

25,000 Outfielder Pyramid

Over at VEB lboros has listed for discussion four twentysomething outfielders rumored to be on the trading block. As is customary in Hot Stove culture, the responses have been varied, vehement, virulent, et cetera. Going from least desireable to most, the list begins with Kevin Mench, the Texas outfielder who, before 2005, was mainly known for his giant skull.

As his Baseball-Reference sponsorship notes, he's one of Delaware's all-time greats. Unfortunately, outside of Delaware his numbers look pretty ordinary. The first obvious sticking point is his OBP; for his career it's .334, .011 below the league when adjusted for his park. Aside from 2003, in which he had a sample-size hiccup and hit 50 points higher than he ever had before (or has since), it's never been above .335. Last year, when he was a big trade deadline target for several teams, it was all of .328.

His slugging, of course, is his prime characteristic, so perhaps judging him on OBP is unfair. Unfortunately, it's not extremely impressive either; for his career his isolated slugging is .212, which is good--he was in the top 25 in the AL last year--but not generally enough to make up for an on-base percentage that's passable at best. When you consider that his ballpark has played as a bandbox since its inception--he was fourth on the team in isolated power--it seems unwise to offer more than, say, Jason Marquis for him. And even that's a stretch; 2005 was his age-27 season, and if that was his peak just then, the Cardinals can do better.

Next on the list, for me, is Blue Jays CF Vernon Wells; aside from a huge year in 2003, the one year he hit for the average expected from his minor league numbers, he's not been Mench's equal as a hitter (although a lot of the perceived difference is park-related.) But Wells also happens to be an outstanding defensive center fielder. Although the difference would be muted in a corner spot, where he would probably be for at least a year, the difference between an average right fielder playing right and an outstanding center fielder playing right would still make up for Mench's offense. Take into account, also, that Wells is a year younger and still has a shot at splitting the difference between 2003's .909 OPS and 2005's .783 mark. Wells would be more expensive, both in terms of salary and trading chits, but he seems like a better gamble.

After those two you get into fantasy territory; Carl Crawford and Adam Dunn are both considered franchise players, and both do things the media values very highly. Like seemingly every Devil Rays prospect not named Aubrey Huff, Crawford was rushed to the major leagues as a 20-year-old tools-jockey way back in 2002. In 63 games that year he hit .259/.290/.371, showing decent power for a guy whose prospect candidacy was based on speed, but little else. In 2003, while the Devil Rays were rapt with BaldelliMania, Crawford quietly... did the exact same thing he did in 2002. While he got his average up to .280, he only managed a walk once every 24.2 at-bats, so his overall contribution was nearly the same. That hint of power he had shown in his debut seemed to disappear as well; all he had going for him was youth.

In 2004 he finally put things together. Mainly getting notice for a blistering stolen-base output over the first half of the season, he also doubled his home run rate, used his speed to amass 19 triples, and dragged his walk rate up from ridiculous to awful. 2005 was more of the same; his home run rate rose a bit, but he walked less.

Some have used Sammy Sosa as an example of a player whose walk rate rose precipitously from the brink of unplayable, but even in his case the big jump didn't happen until after he hit 66 home runs and pitchers were afraid to give him something to hit. Now, if you think Carl Crawford is going to start pounding terrifyingly long home runs out of New Busch, then I'm all for that line of reasoning--in fact, forget about that line of reasoning, sign him for the power. But as things stand now he is what he is: a good hitter for a corner outfield position who will probably age well, but stands to lose a lot of value if he goes into a contact slump for a month or two. There's also the matter of what the Devil Rays would want for their 2004 all-star; can the Cardinals afford another top prospect diaspora?

And anyway, my guess is that the pressure for teams to Hustle Like the White Sox will cause his perceived value to leapfrog that of a more valuable player, Adam Dunn. Pulling the trigger on an Adam Dunn deal would probably require a lot of guts on the part of Jocketty; it seems like whenever a team fails in the playoffs, the assumption is that they would have done better if they could "manufacture runs" via the stolen base, bunting runners over, and waving your hands so that Christopher Lloyd will see you.

Were those requirements for being a good corner outfielder, Adam Dunn would fail miserably; he's hit better than .249 for a grand total of a season and a half, he's the all-time single season strikeout champ, and I hear he didn't even like the first Back to the Future. But he's also posted two consecutive seasons with an OPS over .900, and even when his batting average was .215 his OBP was .354.

There's a chance that Carl Crawford could break out one of these years and outplay Dunn, who is not only king of the old players' skills but also a liability in the outfield, but the chance isn't good that it will happen soon. Even if you think it'll happen next year, Dunn could probably be had cheaper; the Reds still feature four outfielders and, at the moment, they only plan on playing three of them at a time out there. I'm not going to pretend that Crawford wouldn't be the most exciting choice of the four; it'd be cool to actually have a guy in the lineup who can steal bases at will, and slashing triples into the corners is a lot more fun to watch than Dunn drawing a walk out of a 1-2 count. But in terms of value for the prospects required, Dunn comes out ahead.

The only one of these four that I really wouldn't want to see in a Cardinals uniform come next year is Mench, who I think is going to disappoint very much whoever ends up winning the sweepstakes. But the other three... when was the last time we had a young, exciting breakout candidate for an outfielder? J.D. Drew 2001?

Speaking of which, after the recent shakeups at Chavez... is Drew going to be on the block? Because I'd take him over all of these guys.
Posted by Dan on 11.05.05 @ 05:17 PM CST [link] [37 Comments]



Thursday, November 3rd

Oh the rumors we will hear

Yes, we're at the time in Hot Stove Season when the paucity of plausible information is such that every single possibility is being explored by some fan or columnist with space to fill; I have it from reliable sources that the Cardinals are looking into the other guy who played Willie Mays Hayes for some speed off the bench--worked for the White Sox, don'tchaknow.

One of the most worrisome of these rumors involves acquiring a certain one-time darling of the media and Bizarre MVP candidate, Juan Pierre. The same Juan Pierre who has exactly one above-average season with the bat, and who hits for so little power that Kurt Vonnegut is looking to do an irony-filled masterpiece about a hypothetical failed steroid test. (Slaughterhouse .385.) Don't get me wrong; Juan's an exciting player, no doubt, and he has his uses. But his reputation means he's going to start getting expensive, and I'd just as soon have John Rodriguez, John Gall, and John Sinunu split time in left as I would expend anything significant to acquire Juan Pierre. If there's one thing the Cardinals don't need, it's a guy who not only hits like Eckstein despite playing in the outfield--he throws like him, too.
Posted by Dan on 11.03.05 @ 02:04 AM CST [link] [25 Comments]



Wednesday, November 2nd

Excuses, excuses

The fates were conspiring against a post last night; not only was November 1 the start of National Novel Writing Month, but it was also opening day for the NBA. And if there's one thing I've ever been more obsessed with than baseball, it's dinosaurs.

But if there's another, it's pro basketball. Back when I was an elementary schooler who idolized the Bird-era Celtics despite being five when he retired, I would watch every game I could, collect thousands of commons from the card sets of the late 80's just to compare the stats (Skybox 89-90 and NBA HOOPS 88-89 were personal favorites), and worship at the alter of Zander Hollander's annuals. As a result, even though baseball has taken over top spot, I couldn't resist watching the Suns/Mavericks game. (Presently Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitski have been taking apart the Suns piece by piece in a fast-paced, 80's-style affair. Good stuff.)

But that's no excuse. Well, it is; I mean, current income on this site is $0.82 a day. But if there's one thing I have in spades, it's free time.

Not that there's a lot happening; the big baseball news today was Derek Jeter winning yet another Gold Glove thanks to his fine hitting. Somewhere, Tim McCarver is giggling like a schoolgirl. It's not a Palmeiro-winning-the-Gold-Glove-at-DH situation, since he's clawed his way up to average defensively over the last few years, and it was good to see Orlando Hudson finally wrest the Gold Glove away from Bret Boone, but it just proves that it wouldn't be baseball without something for all of us to complain about. Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez is at third base. (Just in case you hadn't heard.)

You like Mike Shannon, I like Mike Shannon, we all like Mike Shannon. So get up get up get up get up and vote for him (and Al Hrabosky, if you're so inclined) for the 2006 Ford C. Frick award--the equivalent of a Hall of Fame nod for broadcasters. We've all heard the complaints leveled against him; he's prone to getting too wrapped up in anecdotes, he sometimes doesn't mention unimportant pitches... but would listening to a game on the radio be the same if we had two broadcasters as sterile and--no offense, honestly--plain as Wayne Hagin? I'm willing to trade the occasional missed 1-0 pitch for that experience. And until they forfeit Marty Brennaman's 2000 win for the sins visited upon us in the NLCS by his son, voting's the only way.

Well, I was all about to wrap this up, but Jason Terry just drilled a runner in the lane to force a second overtime; it's funny, after a year of rooting hard for one team, to just be rooting for more time.

What, then, to talk about? Well, how about the unbridled glee displayed by the media as Paul DePodesta and Theo Epstein make their exits? A representative passage from Flak Magazine, a self-styled "guide to everything" that has an unquenchable thirst for "high-quality content":
Williams' White Sox won the World Series this year with a strategy that included use of the sacrifice bunt and the stolen base, two plays that statheads will tell you, with convincing evidence, result in fewer runs than if a team just let its players swing away and wait for the next batter to move them over.

Meanwhile, DePodesta, in "Moneyball," appeared prominently as Spock to Beane's Captain Kirk, the No. 2 to his Austin Powers, the Rove to his Bush. He was the young, Harvard-educated stat hound whose computer, like HAL with the astronauts in 2001: A Space Odyssey, wiped out a squadron of scouts who would interfere with its mission. The scouts relied on what they saw with their eyes, radar guns and stopwatches, and dreamed of what players could be. DePodesta's computer looked at the numbers to show what actually was.

Nevermind the preponderance of adjectives, or the subliminal portrayal of the Moneyball phantom as a murderous evil computer; I'm willing to be kind about that since the author at least realizes that Moneyball is, at its core, a book about exploiting market inefficiencies from someone who had more experience with Wall Street than Huston Street. But had the "guide to everything" took a cursory glance at the White Sox' roster, they would have seen that Kenny Williams had, perhaps unintentionally, assembled a roster similar to those Beane and DePodesta built with the Athletics.

The Athletics were well-regarded for the way that, rather than sign closers to huge contracts, they made them and then left the overvaluing for others. The White Sox featured Dustin Hermanson, a washout starter with a half-season of closing experience who was most famous for his sideburns; and Bobby Jenks, a guy waived as a headcase by Anaheim whose 100 mph fastball Williams smartly snatched up. Journeymen Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts stablized the middle of the pen, and Damaso Marte and Luis Vizcaino both tipped the salary scales at a little more than a million a year.

The White Sox didn't get on base particularly well, but they didn't tolerate ciphers, either; they got decent production out of a solid defensive middle infield, commandeered a backup catcher who knows how to handle the bat, and had depth enough to weather an injury to Frank "12 Homers with One Hand" Thomas. The offense hit a lot of home runs (surprise!) and, in theory, waited for the top of its order to get on base.

Most importantly, they featured four solid starters, two (largely) homegrown and two acquired in trade. The "Big Three" they weren't, but they operated on the same principle.

It all comes from peoples' tendency to want to make blanket statements, and I can't really blame anybody for that because otherwise things would be boring. If you're going to write about somebody flouting the system, though, make sure they aren't a part of it first.

And on that note, the Suns have blown an exciting game, and I revel in this impartiality. Er, I will until the Celtics open their season.
Posted by Dan on 11.02.05 @ 01:20 AM CST [link] [28 Comments]








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