Get Up, Baby!

Monday, December 12th

The Big One

Couldn't get Brian Giles, so the Cardinals instead acquired the player he was once traded for straight up. (Giles had just put up a .396 OBP in 350 at-bats.) Two years, $2.9 million for Ricardo Rincon, if you haven't heard yet.

I don't like it.

Rincon was, for a shining moment, a LOOGY par excellance, if there is such a thing; his career ERA is 3.53, and at his peak he even held righties to an OPS under .650. But 2005 Rincon turned right-handed batters into the late-career version of Frank Thomas--.240/.387/.520. Do you have any idea how many rants will be made on talk radio as a result of that .137 walk rate? How many remote controls will be thrown through television screens? How many fists will be thrown through television screens? We're talking a minimum of three electrical fatalities a year over the replacement LOOGY.

But see, here's what bothers me about the deal: there's no need to make a two year commitment to a 35-year-old average relief pitcher, especially one that's worth over a million a year. The other lefty in the Cards' pen, Randy Flores, struck out a batter an inning, held lefties under a .600 OPS, and cost the Cardinals various trinkets and meal money. He was just a guy bouncing around the minor leagues in his late 20s, and he came in and was effective.

Basically, he's Ricardo Rincon circa 1997, when the 27-year-old came in, struck out a batter an inning for the Pirates, and did it for $150,000. The availability of free talent is overstated in stathead circles sometimes--all that glitters like Calvin Pickering is not gold--but this is where lefty relievers come from. For every BJ Ryan and Billy Wagner that comes in as a youngster there are ten guys like Rincon and Flores and Ray King who, possessing no specific pedigree, luck into a major league role and prove effective.

And then, five years later, they get a big payday from a team who thinks they need a name guy in every bullpen role.

This isn't a bad deal; it'll help the Cardinals, probably, and it's become apparent that DeWitt is determined to have his money parceled out in lovely $2M denominations, so it's not like this would otherwise be going to a second baseman not named Miles. But it's not a necessary deal, and I'd just rather see if Tyler Johnson breaks out before they reach for the proven, marginally-above-average commodities.

[On an unrelated note, for those of you who gave me your comments and suggestions in the post below this one, thanks a lot; for those of you who haven't, I'd love to hear what you have to say. And yes, take heart--the frames will die soon.]
Posted by Dan on 12.12.05 @ 12:36 AM CST [link] [33 Comments]

Friday, December 9th

Comment Box

Okay, so I'm working on some new things for the site, including but certainly not limited to installing blogging software that isn't six years old, and my question to you, the six viewers, is: what could I be doing better? What would cause you to come here often and/or comment more? (Keeping in mind that--I looked it up--kidnapping lboros is not feasible in the current economic climate.) I'm open to pretty much anything else, though.

E-mail me any suggestions or put them here in the comments. Thanks.
Posted by Dan on 12.09.05 @ 05:45 PM CST [link] [44 Comments]

Thursday, December 8th

Mele Kalikimaka

(We're snowed in here at Up, Baby! Enterprises, so it's all I can do to listen to Bing Crosby and the Andrews Sisters and pretend I don't have to know how to drive in the snow.)

Anyway, the news out of the Rule 5 draft is that the Cardinals selected a pitcher from the Cubs, Juan Mateo. Last year the Cubs gave up Andy Sisco, a giant of a southpaw starting pitcher, to the Royals in the Rule 5; he responded by striking out a batter an inning and putting up a 3.11 ERA in a relief role in KC.

As for Mateo, he's a 23-year-old righty without the tools or prospect clout of Sisco, who was a 40-man roster gaffe on the level of Chris Shelton. Last year he put up very nice numbers--10.13 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, and a very good home run rate--but it was as a 22-year-old swingman (32 appearances, 16 starts) in the pitcher's heaven known as the Florida State League, so any numbers put up there are to be taken with a grain of salt. The strikeout rate was a big increase on his previous marks, but the results were similar. A pitcher is the easiest player to sneak through the Rule 5, generally--just ask Johan Santana, who got knocked around for 86 innings as a 21-year-old mopup pitcher after being plucked in 2000.

John Sickels had this to say:

I like this guy but he is a long way from the majors. Well, now he's not I suppose. If the Cards want to keep him, they can stash him away in the back end of the bullpen. Dominican, 23 years old, throws strikes.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but he lists him among the three most interesting players of the bunch. If it comes down to stashing him in the back of the bullpen or signing a guy off the scrap heap who'll probably be a half-run better, why not keep him? They made the bet that the difference between Hector Luna and a Neifi-class backup infielder wasn't big enough to offset his potential, and now they have someone who, at the very least, will outhit Aaron Miles. But so would Neifi, and--I digress.

As for Luna, actually, I would be stunned if Aaron Miles beats him in an actual competition for the second base role; Luna, for one, just looks more impressive; he swings through a lot of pitches, and he's erratic sometimes afield, but he's got a big, powerful-looking swing and a strong arm. Miles has the David Eckstein starter kit, and he isn't sure why some of the pieces were still in the bag when he was finished assembling his career.

Luna's career totals, over these 300+ at-bats, are actually not that bad for a second baseman: .265/.322/.384 out of a guy who'll be 26 next year. It could be that, if Jock even considers Miles The Answer to any question that isn't "Who was the worst player in the deal?" at all, we end up with another Marlon Anderson situation where the anointed starter gets smoked out during spring training.
Posted by Dan on 12.08.05 @ 01:36 PM CST [link] [31 Comments]

Thursday, December 8th

The plot thickens.

Larry Bigbie and Aaron Miles are big, fat ciphers. Aaron Miles first: he couldn't start on my old high school baseball team. For one, the second baseman was a good hitter, and considerably bigger. Also he's considerably too old, although he would have to show ID to any concerned truant officers. If one were to consider his closest comparison, subjectively, it would be Neifi Perez without the defense. Or... or the hitting; Ole' Neifinator used to get his slugging percentage over .400 in Coors field. He looks a little like David Eckstein, and I'm sure he'll be kind to St. Louis's stray dogs, but unless he starts the year in Memphis as lboros hopes... well, is Fernando Viña still wanting to come back?

Bigbie... Here's my one Larry Bigbie anecdote; one year--I think it was this last one--when I was at spring training his team came around, and when he came up to bat I turned to my mom and said, "This guy can't hit, but the Orioles still like him for some reason." Pretty quickly it seemed there was a vocal contingent of Bigbie fans a few rows in front of us, and so I spoke up a little louder. And then I realized it was his family.

That uncomfortable moment aside, Bigbie's upside is... I don't know, off-peak Ice Williams? He's got a little speed, and a little pop, and a little batting average, and when all the littles are tallied up he's still a little short of being an acceptable corner outfielder.

As for Ray King's departure, well... I like the guy, even though he wasn't very good last year, and I hope the change of scenery does him well. And I'm still in his posse, though any posse-fighting activities will still have to be scheduled with the central time zone in mind.

I'm hoping this has something to do with those Javy Vazquez/Carlos Quentin trades floating around the internet; while Marquis/Suppan/Wainwright is a big price to pay--especially if they want Chris Lambert, too--Vazquez has the potential to be the next Chris Carpenter (failed prospect with flashes of brilliance, etc. etc.), and Quentin is a better hitter than Bigbie right now who also is understood to be an outstanding defender at the corners. Think about this rotation: Carpenter/Mulder/Vazquez/Reyes/(flak). I like it. One of those three at the top is going to have a big year, it's a law of averages thing. And Bigbie's a fine fourth outfielder. FOURTH OUTFIELDER. And Miles...

Well, Miles is still useless. Paging Fernando Viña, your party is in the Bret Boone suite.

edit: If you didn't love Tony La Russa yet, well...

"If I'm a fan, I'm thinking new ballpark and new revenue," La Russa said. "We haven't increased (payroll) dramatically, but we've increased it. So I've been told. But if I'm a fan, I'm thinking more about $10-$13 million.

Preach it.
Posted by Dan on 12.08.05 @ 02:07 AM CST [link] [22 Comments]

Tuesday, December 6th

A Jay

I don't blame Burnett. I think he's stupid, because I'd rather live in St. Louis with $500 than Canada with $50,000,000, but I don't blame him. I hope his arm gives out five starts in, and I hope his agent's arm gives out throwing the Sacks O' Canadian Money into the vault, but I don't blame him.

I do blame Bill DeWitt, if the story about the Cardinals not giving a fifth year because they couldn't get it insured is true; what is this stupid stadium for, anyway? Can't risk $10 million after spending $300M on a fancy brick facade and a new hot dog cannon for That One Guy?

Because here's the thing: A.J. Burnett isn't a great pitcher. He's not going to be a great pitcher, either, in all likelihood. But he's $3M better than Loaiza and Morris, and he was the straw that stirred the Cardinals offseason drink. So if Bill DeWitt couldn't hock another autographed urinal to raise the scratch to complete the Burnett deal, it's his fault. Say what you will about Steinbrenner, but he'd have signed Burnett's mother to a five year deal if it was necessary.

Because now there's nothing to spend that $10M on. Matty Mo again? Kevin Millwood? Jacque Freaking Jones? Todd Jones? And suddenly Jocketty's forced to deal from the few prospects the Cardinals have left to fill holes at second, the outfield corners, and the bullpen. (And the Phillies, apparently, asked the Cubs for Mark Prior in exchange for Bobby Abreu. Wouldn't that have seemed insane, say, two years ago? Almost as insane as giving Esteban Loaiza $7M a year?)

I'm certainly not convinced the Cardinals' season is crushed because they couldn't sign a fragile fireballer in time--they're still good enough to make the playoffs and then some, and after that it's all a crapshoot--I'm just... well, happy to have another reason to be angry at Bill DeWitt.

As for the bench fodder signed yesterday, well... I'm glad it's understood that Deivi is bench fodder. He's an occasionally useful hitter whose occasionally-vaunted defense has seen better days. And Gary Bennett... well, his OBP is over .300 for his career! That's cool for a Cardinals backup catcher.
Posted by Dan on 12.06.05 @ 04:04 PM CST [link] [24 Comments]

Monday, December 5th

With 20% Less A.J. Burnett

For one, there's no real news right now; it's probably going to happen, they say, but the Blue Jays were the first to guarantee a fifth year and A.J. could just really, really want to see the CN Tower, who knows. And for another, lboros has every last Burnett murmuring covered like Gary Payton (and I don't mean mediocre Miami Heat Gary Payton, either, this lboros would undoubtedly start ahead of Jason Williams.)

Instead I set my sights smaller. Recently I tried to summarize the career of new Cardinals import Dennis Tankersley; one-time high prospects-cum-minor league free agents deserve at least a Bobby Jenks Memorial cursory glance. Unfortunately, I've only seen him pitch once, and that was in highlights from the game in which he allowed 7 earned runs without recording an out. (If that was truly representative of the way he pitched, scouting reports would begin "Tankersley wants desperately to commit suicide before every pitch"--not until Tony Womack was the Cardinals' opening day second baseman would I see another SportsCenter so depressing.)

With that in mind, I decided to check around the Padres blogs and see if anybody there could offer a reason as to why a guy who used to strike out 11 batters per 9 had disappeared off the map. Mike of metalsupply, an excellent Padres blog (so excellent he did a post about Arvydas Sabonis), had this to say:

My feeling on Tankersley is that his failure in the majors was due to confidence. He was definitely not overused. His location was consistently terrible despite the fact that he always LOOKED like a future star. He might have come up with an injury due to pushing himself too hard, but none was reported that I ever heard of. He would throw these amazing pitches that would whip around and land square in the middle of the plate... and then square in the middle of the bleachers. No one has ever looked better with poorer results.

When we sent him back to Portland the second time, his AA/AAA stats (which had previously been excellent) deteriorated, and then he got traded for Darrell May, who we traded to the Yankees for a bag of balls. Prior to all of this, Tankersley was supposed to be our best prospect, better than Peavy (who was supposed to be our "fifth best pitching prospect"... or something equally short-sighted/ridiculous).

I still think the kid has the stuff to be as good as anyone, and I'm reminded of Chris Carpenter's struggles with the Blue Jays. Maybe Duncan can push him in the right direction.

This kind of report has me more optimistic about him than I was before; it really is the same kind of report people gave about Chris Carpenter, although obviously Carp had had some major league success prior to coming to the Cardinals. While we can't expect lightning to strike twice, I would be stunned if he didn't push hard for one of the many righty bullpen spots open.

In other news, Yowza. Matt Morris is, in all likelihood, going to get a contract exceeding Loaiza's $21 million windfall. Not bad at all for a guy on the wrong end of 30 who hasn't put together an ERA 15% lower than the league average since his huge 2001. I mean, I like Matty Mo, I really do, but this kind of insanity is the only market in which A.J. Burnett could actually be worth $50 million. Taking salary inflation into account that last $10 million is going to look more like $7 million does now, and if that's Esteban Loaiza money Walt might as well pull the trigger.

Man, do I hate saying that.
Posted by Dan on 12.05.05 @ 01:25 PM CST [link] [29 Comments]

Sunday, December 4th

High Priest Walchizadek's Burnett Offering

This made my wallet hurt, and there's nothing in there but $5 and my library card. Well, if it's the centerpiece of the Cardinals' offseason, and the money's either going to be spent on him or Jacque Jones and three turns at the Grab Bag of Mediocre Infielders it might as well happen this way. Even in my biased state I'm willing to admit that a rotation of Carpenter, Burnett, Mulder, Marquis (possibly) and Young Reyes looks pretty freaking cool.
Posted by Dan on 12.04.05 @ 10:56 PM CST [link] [27 Comments]

Friday, December 2nd

And now for something completely different.

The offer's in on Burnett--somebody must have gabbed, so I'm sure Walt is sharpening the hatchet as we speak. Four years, just about forty million dollars with a performance option for a fifth year. It's less than what the Blue Jays guaranteed, so hopefully the childhood fandom/the Blue Jays are freaking in Canada combination will win him over.

Hopefully? Well, yeah, at this point, with the Cardinals' entire offseason resting on his bionic right shoulder, I figure it's probably best that they get him. Even though he'll be extraordinarily overpaid. Extraordinarily.

Anyway, there is some pitching news: the Jimmy Journell era is now over. The erstwhile token prospect signed a minor league deal with the Reds, where he is guaranteed at least two weeks as the closer after the rest of the team blows some saves. I'm guessing he'll slot in between Stormy Weathers and Charlie Sheen.

But that wasn't the minor league pitcher I was set to talk about. I was going to discuss the Cardinals' failed prospect acquisition, Dennis Tankersley. Way back in 2002, Tankersley was the second best prospect in the Padres system. Behind... Sean Burroughs. Baseball America had this to say about him back then: "Tankersley can throw four pitches for strikes, and most of them are nasty. He can reach the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball, and his sinking two-seamer arrives in the low 90s. Hitters can’t sit on his fastball because he has a mid-80s slider that was rated the best breaking ball in the Cal League."

It's funny; BA could make me sound like a top prospect. ("Moore throws a fastball in the mid-50s, and features a big floating eephus that's a 70 on the 20-80 eephus loft scale. Managers rated him the best prospect in the Long John Silvers' drive-thru lane.") Tankersley had some great numbers that year; up to that point, he had never struck out fewer than 11 batters per 9 innings, save for his short stint in AAA. There were a few problems, though; as a 22-year-old starting a season in A ball, he couldn't afford to have a single misstep. So, naturally, he had three years of missteps, including his famous 2003 line with the Padres: 0 IP, 7 ER. Yowza.

But rewind a little; after placing second following the 2001 season, he was out of the top ten for 2002. This is a difficult thing to do, but he was up to the challenge. He started the year in the Padres rotation, and his control, which had already been little more than mediocre, disappeared. He put up a 39:40 K:BB ratio, allowed 10 home runs, and got an ERA over 8. After 51 innings of this he spent 100+ around the low minors, where he was solid. The bloom was off the prospect rose, however, and his strikeout rates began their slow decline.

His last three seasons have seen him appear as little more than an average AAA pitcher; his strikeout rate was 6.88 per 9 last year, and his walk rate still hovers around 4. The key, I guess, is that he's been effective before; if somebody doesn't realize what's wrong, well, Memphis has a solid ten game winner to take the field with. If somebody does--well, any effective innings he has in the big leagues are gravy.

Posted by Dan on 12.02.05 @ 10:46 AM CST [link] [16 Comments]